Silva out, two home defeats in a row: Mantova’s derby with Verona comes at a bad time
Mantova have been one of Serie B’s surprise packages, fourth in the table and three points ahead of Verona. Their recent form at the Martelli, though, has turned: defeats to Palermo and Cremonese without scoring, and now the derby against a Verona side that has won its last two league games, 1-0 at Juve Stabia and 3-0 against Carrarese. Away fans from Verona are banned, and Marco Baroni has chosen not to speak before the game, but the main team news concerns the hosts: Jonathan Silva, Mantova’s best performer by FotMob rating, is injured.
„We don’t talk about targets. We’re enjoying the moment.“ – Bodin Tomašević (via La Voce di Mantova, translated from Italian)
Predicted lineups: Mantova vs Verona
Silva is out and Meroni is also injured, so Tomašević, the 20-year-old centre-back on loan from Bologna, continues in the back three. Chinetti is back in the squad. Verona have a long list of players carrying problems, with Tomás Suslov out and Suat Serdar and Domagoj Bradarić doubts, but Baroni is expected to name the XI that beat Carrarese, with Mosquera through the middle and Sarr and Sezonienko wide.
Mantova Team News & Preview
Francesco Modesto’s side have been excellent value for their league position, with 18 points from ten games and only 11 goals conceded. Their underlying numbers are more ordinary than the table suggests, though: 1.42 expected goals for and 1.41 against per game, essentially a break-even side. The home record has slipped to two wins, one draw and two defeats, and the last two games at the Martelli have both been lost 2-0.
Silva’s absence matters. He has been their highest-rated player this season, and the defence has already had to reshuffle with Meroni out. Francesco Ruocco, with five goals, is the main scoring threat.
What works for or against Mantova
- Fourth in the table with only 11 goals conceded.
- Lost their last two home league games 2-0.
- Top-rated player Jonathan Silva is injured.
- Expected goals for and against are almost level.
Verona Team News & Preview
Relegated from Serie A, Verona have found their rhythm. Their 19 league goals are the second-highest total in the division, they create 1.74 expected goals per game and allow just 1.12, the best balance of the two sides by a distance. Daniel Mosquera has seven league goals and the highest FotMob rating in the squad.
The concern is depth and travel. Verona’s away record is one win, one draw and two defeats, and the injury list is long, with Suslov and De Battisti out, Serdar and Bradarić doubtful and several others carrying knocks. Baroni has not held a press conference, so there is no confirmation of how many of those are close to returning.
What works for or against Verona
- Two league wins in a row, including 3-0 against Carrarese.
- 1.74 xG for and only 1.12 against per game.
- Only one away league win this season.
- Suslov and De Battisti are out, Serdar and Bradarić doubtful.
Mantova vs Verona Odds
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Mantova vs. Verona Form Guide
Mantova Form, Stats & Data
Mantova have conceded 11 goals from 14.1 expected against, so their excellent defensive record has been helped along. That is fine while it lasts, but losing their best performer and a second defender puts pressure on a back line that has already been beaten twice at home without reply.
Verona Form, Stats & Data
Verona’s numbers are the strongest in this fixture: more expected goals, fewer expected goals against and a striker in form. Their goals record matches their chances closely, which tells me the recent wins are not a fluke. If the starting XI from last week is available, I think they are the better side here.
Mantova vs Verona: Prediction & Betting Tip
The table has Mantova ahead, but the underlying data has Verona clearly better, and the team news has swung their way too. Mantova have lost twice at home without scoring and are without Silva, while Verona have two wins in a row and Mosquera in form.
The strongest argument against Verona is their own injury list and their modest away record, and there is no press conference to tell us who is fit. That uncertainty is why I want my stake back if it ends level, and why the stake stays small. Verona Draw No Bet at 1.91 with Winz is my bet at 3/10, and I expect a 2-1 away win.