Parker’s first Saturday: West Ham’s away form against a leaky Blackburn
Scott Parker had barely met his players before Wednesday’s trip to Cardiff, and at half-time his West Ham side were 3-0 down. They came back to draw 3-3, and that second half is the template Parker wants for his first Saturday in charge. West Ham have been poor at the London Stadium, losing their last two home league games, which cost Nuno Espírito Santo his job. On the road, though, they have not lost all season, and Ewood Park is their next stop. Tony Mowbray’s Blackburn have lost two in a row and may be without right-back Ryan Alebiosu.
„West Ham are beatable. They lost their manager because they have lost too many games this year.“ – Tony Mowbray (via BBC Sport)
Predicted lineups: Blackburn vs West Ham
Alebiosu limped out of the Stoke defeat before half-time and was waiting on a scan, while Tom Atcheson has a minor niggle and needs to train to be involved. Ryoya Morishita and Mathias Jorgensen are still out. Parker said the side that played the second half at Cardiff would be a good one, which points to starts for Ezra Mayers, Mohamadou Kanté and Joël Piroe, who all came on at half-time. Kyle Walker-Peters is out for several weeks with a muscle injury.
Blackburn Team News & Preview
Mowbray has gone into this game on the front foot, insisting West Ham are beatable and that his side will „have a go“. The recent evidence is not on his side. Blackburn were thrashed 4-0 at Swansea, then lost 2-1 at home to Stoke on Tuesday, with a late Andri Gudjohnsen equaliser ruled out. That defeat ended a run of three straight home wins.
The bigger issue is defensive. Blackburn have allowed 25.2 expected goals in 14 games, 1.80 per match, and generate only 1.04 at the other end. Gudjohnsen, with nine league goals, has outscored his chances and carried the attack, while a back four already short of Alebiosu and Atcheson would be facing a side averaging more than two and a half goals a game.
What works for or against Blackburn
- Andri Gudjohnsen has nine league goals.
- Won three straight home games before the Stoke defeat.
- 1.80 expected goals conceded per game.
- Alebiosu and Atcheson are doubts in defence.
West Ham Team News & Preview
West Ham’s season has been split down the middle. At home they lost to Southampton and West Brom in successive games; away from home they are unbeaten in seven, with wins including 6-0 at Lincoln and 1-0 at Swansea. They have scored 36 league goals, more than anyone in the division, and create 2.06 expected goals per game.
Bowen has been the driving force, with seven goals and seven assists, and Mavropanos has chipped in with five from centre-back. The concern is at the back: 21 goals conceded, and Cardiff showed in the first half on Wednesday how passive they can be. Parker admitted afterwards that the first 45 minutes were „poor in many aspects“.
What works for or against West Ham
- Unbeaten in seven away league games.
- 36 league goals, the most in the Championship.
- Conceded three in the first half at Cardiff on Wednesday.
- Only Parker's second game in charge, with one day less rest than Blackburn.
Blackburn vs West Ham Odds
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Blackburn vs. West Ham Form Guide
Blackburn Form, Stats & Data
Blackburn’s 20 goals have come from only 14.6 expected goals, while they have allowed 25.2. That is a side living above its underlying level at both ends, and the last two results suggest the gap is closing. Against an attack as productive as West Ham’s, I struggle to see them keeping things tight for 90 minutes.
West Ham Form, Stats & Data
On the numbers, West Ham are among the strongest teams in the division: 2.06 xG for and 1.24 against per game, with 6.7 shots on target a match. Their league position reflects a run of poor home results more than a poor side. Away from the pressure of the London Stadium, they have been far more convincing.
Blackburn vs West Ham: Prediction & Betting Tip
West Ham create twice as much as Blackburn, have the division’s most productive attack and have not lost away from home all season. Blackburn, meanwhile, have lost two in a row, concede plenty of chances and could be without two defenders. I expect the visitors to win this.
The strongest argument against is the uncertainty around West Ham themselves: a new manager in only his second game, one day less to recover after the Cardiff trip and a defence that has been far too easy to play through. Four of their seven away games have also ended level. That is why I am keeping the stake at 3/10. West Ham to win at 1.63 with Winz is my bet, and I expect a 3-1 away win.