Nothing left to win for Vancouver, everything to lose for Seattle
Pre-match update (20:30 CET): The official line-ups had not been released when I checked, so the line-ups below are still my prediction. The latest MLS Player Status Report confirms the team news this preview is built on: Andrés Cubas and Emmanuel Sabbi (both ankle), Jeevan Badwal, Kenji Cabrera and Belal Halbouni are out for Vancouver, and Rayan Elloumi is suspended. Seattle are still without Pedro de la Vega, Yeimar Gómez and Nikola Petković, Danny Musovski remains questionable and Paul Rothrock is no longer on the injury list. Nothing has changed my view, so the tip and the 3/10 stake stay as they are. The odds quoted are from the time of publication this morning; prices may have moved since.
Vancouver’s work was done before a ball has been kicked in this Cascadia derby: Dallas‘ 1-1 draw at Sporting KC on Saturday handed Jesper Sørensen’s side first place in the Western Conference for the first time in club history. Seattle have no such comfort. Brian Schmetzer’s team sit ninth, level on points with Colorado in eighth and only one point clear of Real Salt Lake, and they arrive at BC Place on a four-game winless run.
“We can’t afford to have too many more stumbles, or we won’t be in the playoffs.” – Brian Schmetzer, quoted by Sounder at Heart
Predicted lineups: Vancouver vs Seattle
Vancouver have to replace two midfielders. Andrés Cubas missed Wednesday’s 4-1 win over San Diego with an ankle problem and is still out, and Rayan Elloumi is suspended. Bruno Caicedo is the obvious candidate to move into the attacking line, with Oliver Larraz and Cvetković behind him. Thomas Müller is fit again after his hamstring injury, but he was an unused substitute on Wednesday and Sørensen is easing him back in, so I have him on the bench. Seattle are without Pedro de la Vega, Yeimar Gómez and Nikola Petković, while Danny Musovski is a doubt. Paul Rothrock is back in the squad after a hamstring injury that once looked like ending his season.
Vancouver Team News & Preview
BC Place has been one of the hardest places to visit in MLS this season. Vancouver have won ten of 16 home league games and scored 39 goals there, and Brian White, who reached 100 MLS goals on Wednesday, has 18 league goals. Their underlying numbers are the best in the West: 2.12 expected goals per game and only 1.13 against.
The question is what Sunday is worth to them. Top spot in the West is settled and the Supporters‘ Shield is out of reach, so the only things left on the table are pride in a sold-out derby and a small say in where a possible MLS Cup final would be played. Sørensen said his side are „ready to attack the last two games“, but with the playoffs three weeks away and Cubas, Elloumi and Emmanuel Sabbi all missing, I do not expect the same edge Vancouver had when the conference title was still at stake. They have also had a busy week, with a trip to Colorado last Saturday and San Diego at home on Wednesday.
What works for or against Vancouver
- Ten wins and 39 goals from 16 home league games.
- Brian White has 18 league goals and scored again in the 4-1 win over San Diego.
- First place in the West is already secure, so there is little at stake in the table.
- Cubas is injured and Elloumi is suspended, leaving the midfield without two regulars.
- Müller is back in the squad, but his minutes are being managed.
Seattle Team News & Preview
Wednesday’s 1-0 home defeat to Houston sums up Seattle’s recent problem. They had 21 shots to Houston’s two and ten corners to one, yet lost to a goal from a corner. Before that came a 2-2 at San Diego, where they conceded a stoppage-time penalty, and a 1-1 draw with Montréal. Four games without a win have taken them from a comfortable position to the edge of the play-in spot.
Away from home, though, Seattle are hard to beat. They have drawn six and lost six of 16 away league games, conceding only 18 goals. Dejan Joveljić has 13 league goals and Albert Rusnák has 11 assists. Seattle’s final game is at home to LAFC, so Sunday is their best chance to take control of their own fate.
What works for or against Seattle
- Only 18 goals conceded in 16 away league games.
- Need points to stay in the playoff places, with Colorado and Real Salt Lake right behind.
- Four league games without a win, including a home defeat to Houston.
- Only 17 goals scored away from home all season.
- Rothrock is back, but Pedro de la Vega is out for the season.
Vancouver vs Seattle Odds
Match Result
Double Chance
Handicap
Over/Under
Both Teams to Score
Half-Time/Full-Time
Vancouver Whitecaps vs. Seattle Sounders Stats Comparison
Show Recent Results
Vancouver Whitecaps vs. Seattle Sounders Form Guide
Vancouver Whitecaps Form, Stats & Data
The defensive record is the reason Vancouver top the West: 33 goals conceded in 32 games, backed by one of the lowest expected goals against figures in the league. Cubas is a big part of that. He is the club’s second-highest-rated player behind Müller, and without him the screen in front of the back four is less experienced. Müller himself is unlikely to play a full game, which takes away some of the creativity that has made Vancouver so dangerous.
Seattle Sounders Form, Stats & Data
Seattle have scored 41 goals from 47.6 expected goals, and that gap has cost them points in the last month. Their games are usually tight: they have conceded only 40 goals all season, and their away games average just over two goals. That profile suits a bet on Seattle avoiding defeat better than a bet on them winning outright.
Vancouver vs Seattle: Prediction & Betting Tip
Vancouver are the better team, and at home they deserve to be favourites. But this is a game between a side that has already secured first place and a side whose season depends on the result, and Vancouver are missing two first-choice midfielders. Seattle have also lost only six of 16 away games this season.
Seattle’s finishing is the obvious problem. They could not beat Houston with 21 shots, and if they waste chances again, Brian White only needs one opportunity. Even so, I think a draw is very possible, and I am taking Seattle Double Chance (X2) at 2.19 with MyStake for 3/10. I see it finishing 1-1.