The league’s leakiest defence against one of its best travellers
Westerlo have been entertaining, but not in a way Issame Charaï will enjoy. A 4-4 draw with Beveren, in which they conceded twice in stoppage time, was followed by a 4-1 defeat at Anderlecht, where three goals went in within six minutes before half-time. They have now conceded 25 league goals, more than anyone else in the division. Sporting Charleroi arrive fourth, with eight wins from ten games and four victories from five trips, fresh from a 5-2 win over La Louvière.
„We are ambitious, but we must stay realistic.“ – Mario Kohnen after the win over La Louvière (via La Dernière Heure, translated from French)
Predicted lineups: Westerlo vs Charleroi
Westerlo should stay with the 4-2-3-1 used at Anderlecht, with Norman Bassette, their top scorer, leading the line and Shunsuke Saito and Cameron Congreve behind him. Charleroi’s Jakob Napoleon Romsaas, their highest-rated player this season, was kicked on the foot against La Louvière and came off early in the second half, but is expected to start.
Westerlo Team News & Preview
Westerlo score goals – 25 in ten league games, with Bassette on seven and Saito on five – and their home games have been wild: 16 scored and 14 conceded in five matches at Het Kuipje. The problem is that they cannot stop the opposition. They allow 1.93 expected goals per game, and in the last two league matches they have conceded eight.
Charaï admitted after the Anderlecht defeat that his side lacked efficiency and that their play was „too sloppy“ at times. Before that, they had beaten Patro Eisden 2-0 in the cup.
What works for or against Westerlo
- 25 league goals, with Bassette on seven and Saito on five.
- Won the last three head-to-head meetings with Charleroi.
- 25 goals conceded, the most in the league.
- Eight goals conceded in their last two league games.
Charleroi Team News & Preview
Charleroi’s season has been built on control. They have 57 per cent of the ball on average, create 1.91 expected goals per game and allow only 1.18, the best balance of the two sides by some distance. Away from home they have won four of five, conceding four goals in total, and the only blemish was a 3-0 defeat at Antwerp.
The 5-2 against La Louvière showed both sides of them. They were 4-0 up and dominant, with Freddy Mbemba outstanding, before switching off and conceding twice late on, which Kohnen was angry about. Mbemba and Aurélien Scheidler have four league goals each.
What works for or against Charleroi
- Four wins from five away league games.
- 1.91 xG for and 1.18 against per game.
- Lost the last three meetings with Westerlo.
- Romsaas has a foot knock but is expected to play.
Westerlo vs Charleroi Odds
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Westerlo vs. Charleroi Form Guide
Westerlo Form, Stats & Data
Westerlo are scoring well above their chances, 25 goals from 15.6 expected, and conceding even more than the 19.3 expected goals they have allowed. That is a side relying on finishing to stay mid-table. I expect them to score, but I do not trust a defence this open against a side as well organised as Charleroi.
Charleroi Form, Stats & Data
Charleroi have the better FotMob team rating in this fixture, 7.15 against 6.91. Their results are backed up by the underlying numbers, and their away record is built on keeping the ball and limiting chances. Against a Westerlo side that gives up a lot, they should create plenty.
Westerlo vs Charleroi: Prediction & Betting Tip
Charleroi are better on almost every measure that matters: expected goals for and against, possession, away results and form. Westerlo can score, but they concede at a rate of 2.5 goals per game and have shipped eight in their last two league matches. I make the visitors the more likely winners.
The strongest argument against them is the head-to-head record, with Westerlo winning the last three meetings, and the fact that Westerlo’s home games are rarely dull. If they get an early goal, the crowd can carry them. That is why I want the stake back on a draw. Charleroi Draw No Bet at 1.63 with Winz is my bet at 4/10, and I expect a 1-2 away win.