After the 9-0: can Excelsior recover against a Go Ahead side still looking for an away win?
Ruben den Uil did not hide from it. Excelsior lost 9-0 at home to Twente last Saturday, the heaviest Eredivisie defeat in the club’s history, after Nesto Groen was sent off in the fifth minute. They did not register a shot. One point from their last six league games has left them 15th, and Groen is banned for this game. Go Ahead Eagles have their own problems: a 4-0 defeat at Cambuur, abandoned late on after their own fans threw fireworks, and no away league win all season.
„Today we saw an Excelsior that went through the ice, mainly mentally.“ – Ruben den Uil after the 9-0 defeat to Twente (via VI, translated from Dutch)
Predicted lineups: Excelsior vs Go Ahead Eagles
Groen’s suspension is the only change forced on Den Uil, and David Garden is expected to come into the front three alongside Aymen Sliti and Irakli Yegoian. Excelsior have no injury problems. Joseph Oosting kept faith with Jasper Cillessen in goal ahead of Haug and is expected to name much the same side as at Cambuur, with Søren Tengstedt, the league’s joint top scorer, in the number ten role. Nick Marsman and Pim Saathof are long-term absentees.
Excelsior Team News & Preview
The 9-0 was an extreme result, played for 85 minutes with ten men, but it fits a broader pattern. Excelsior have won just once in five home league games, against Sparta, and conceded 19 goals at Woudestein. Over the season they allow 2.12 expected goals per game, have 42 per cent of the ball on average and manage only 3.5 shots on target.
Den Uil spoke of eleven players not doing their job, and the mental recovery from a result like that is the big unknown. Their attack is shared around, with Sliti, Garden and Yegoian on three league goals each, but losing Groen removes one of the few players who gives them a direct threat.
What works for or against Excelsior
- Won 3-0 at MVV in the cup two games ago.
- Lost 9-0 at home to Twente last weekend.
- One home league win in five, with 19 goals conceded.
- Nesto Groen is suspended.
Go Ahead Eagles Team News & Preview
Go Ahead are the better side on every underlying number in this fixture: 1.88 expected goals per game, 5.8 shots on target and 54 per cent possession. Tengstedt has eight league goals and has carried the attack. The problem has been their away form. Three draws and three defeats from six trips, with 19 goals conceded, is poor for a team with their level of chance creation.
The Cambuur game was a low point, 3-0 down at half-time before the match was stopped in the 82nd minute. Oosting made three changes at the break and now has a week to reset. Before that they beat Telstar 3-2 and won 5-0 in the cup.
What works for or against Go Ahead Eagles
- 1.88 expected goals per game, more than Excelsior's 1.18.
- Tengstedt has eight league goals.
- No away league win this season (D3 L3).
- Lost 4-0 at Cambuur last time out.
Excelsior vs Go Ahead Eagles Odds
Match Result
Double Chance
Handicap
Over/Under
Both Teams to Score
Half-Time/Full-Time
Excelsior vs. GA Eagles Stats Comparison
Show Recent Results
Excelsior vs. GA Eagles Form Guide
Excelsior Form, Stats & Data
Even taking the Twente game out, Excelsior’s defensive numbers are among the worst in the league, and 2.12 expected goals against per game is consistent across the season rather than the product of one bad night. Their attack is spread thin and relies on Yegoian’s creativity. I do not see a quick fix in a week.
GA Eagles Form, Stats & Data
Go Ahead create plenty, but they have conceded 27 goals from 18.2 expected, which points to individual mistakes as much as structure. That is part of why Oosting has changed his goalkeeper. If they tighten up even slightly, the attacking output should be enough against this opponent.
Excelsior vs Go Ahead Eagles: Prediction & Betting Tip
Go Ahead create more, have more of the ball and have the league’s joint top scorer. Excelsior are coming off a historic defeat, are missing Groen and have conceded 19 goals in five home games. On the football, the visitors should be the stronger side.
The case against is Go Ahead’s away record – no wins in six – and the risk that Excelsior respond to the 9-0 with a performance built on effort and pride. Go Ahead have also conceded heavily themselves, so this could be loose. That is why I am taking Draw No Bet rather than the away win at 2.29. Go Ahead Eagles Draw No Bet at 1.70 with Winz is my bet at 3/10, and I expect a 1-2 away win.