Sixth in the table, bottom-three numbers: Fortuna’s luck meets an injury list
Fortuna Sittard are sixth in the Eredivisie, five places and ten points above Telstar. Look underneath that and the picture changes completely. Danny Buijs‘ side create fewer than one expected goal per game and allow more than two, and their position rests heavily on goalkeeper Mattijs Branderhorst. Now they have injuries too: Rodrigo Guth and Lequincio Zeefuik both went off at De Kuip last week, and Édouard Michut is out. Telstar arrive after a 4-2 win over Utrecht that ended a nine-game winless run in the league and eased the pressure on Henk Brugge.
„A reward for a very good game.“ – Henk Brugge after the win over Utrecht (via NH Nieuws, translated from Dutch)
Predicted lineups: Fortuna vs Telstar
Guth came off after half an hour at Feyenoord and Zeefuik shortly after half-time, and both are doubts. Iván Márquez is the likely replacement in the back five, while Kristoffer Peterson could come in if Zeefuik misses out. Telstar should keep the side that beat Utrecht, with Tyrone Owusu behind Nökkvi Thorisson. Gerald Alders has missed the last three games and remains a doubt.
Fortuna Sittard Team News & Preview
Fortuna’s results have been far better than their performances. They have 18 goals for and 18 against, but only 0.88 expected goals per game going forward and 2.33 allowed, the profile of a side fighting relegation rather than one in the top six. They average 36 per cent possession, and Branderhorst, their highest-rated player on FotMob, has done a huge amount of work.
At home they have been ordinary: two wins, a draw and two defeats, with six goals scored and nine conceded. The 1-1 at Feyenoord last weekend, earned with an 86th-minute equaliser from Shiloh ‚t Zand after a long spell under pressure, was a good result but not a performance to build on, and it came at a cost in defence.
What works for or against Fortuna Sittard
- Sixth in the table and unbeaten in three games in all competitions.
- 0.88 xG for and 2.33 xG against per game.
- Guth and Zeefuik are doubts, Michut is out.
- Only two wins in five home league games.
Telstar Team News & Preview
Brugge was under real pressure a week ago. Telstar went out of the cup at home to Almere City and some supporters turned on him. The response was a 4-2 win over Utrecht, with Owusu, Abdelnor Soualhia, Thorisson and Ar’Jany Martha all scoring, and Owusu was then named the league’s Player of the Month for October.
They are 16th and have won only once on the road, at NEC, so this is not a side in form away from home. Their underlying numbers are better than Fortuna’s, though – 1.37 expected goals per game against 0.88 – and they have a good record at this ground, unbeaten in their last five visits.
What works for or against Telstar
- Beat Utrecht 4-2 last weekend to end a nine-game winless league run.
- Unbeaten in their last five visits to Sittard.
- Only one away league win this season.
- 2.07 expected goals conceded per game.
Fortuna vs Telstar Odds
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Sittard vs. Telstar Stats Comparison
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Sittard vs. Telstar Form Guide
Sittard Form, Stats & Data
Eighteen goals from 9.7 expected is the biggest overperformance I can find in this fixture, and conceding 18 from 25.6 expected against tells the same story at the other end. Fortuna have been clinical and their goalkeeper has been outstanding. Both of those things can continue for a while, but I do not want to back a side whose basic numbers look like this, especially with two defenders doubtful.
Telstar Form, Stats & Data
Telstar are not a good defensive side, and 2.07 xG against per game explains why they are in the bottom three. Going forward they are more convincing than the table suggests, and Owusu is in the form of his career. Against a Fortuna team that gives up a lot of chances, they should create enough to stay in the game.
Fortuna vs Telstar: Prediction & Betting Tip
The table makes Fortuna clear favourites, but the numbers say these two sides are much closer than ten points suggest, and arguably that Telstar are the better attacking team. Fortuna’s defence is weakened, they have been living off finishing and goalkeeping, and Telstar have a strong record at this ground.
The main argument against Telstar is their own away form: one win on the road all season, and a defence that leaks chances. Fortuna’s tendency to grind out results is also real. That is why I want the draw covered and the stake kept small. Telstar Draw No Bet at 2.28 with Winz is my bet at 3/10, and I expect a 1-2 away win.