Celestini’s search for a first win takes him to a ground where nobody has won
Burnley went down with the expectation of bouncing straight back. Fourteen games in, they have one league win, sit 22nd and have already changed head coach: Nicky Hayen was sacked after the 4-1 home defeat to Lincoln, and Fabio Celestini has opened with goalless and 1-1 draws against Portsmouth and QPR. His next stop is Cardiff, who have not lost at home in the league all season, even if Wednesday’s collapse from 3-0 up against West Ham showed how fragile Brian Barry-Murphy’s side can be.
„We have a big gap between the potential and the performance, but that’s more confidence.“ – Fabio Celestini (via burnleyfootballclub.com)
Predicted lineups: Cardiff vs Burnley
Barry-Murphy described Perry Ng as a doubt after he came off against West Ham, so Ronan Kpakio is expected at right-back, while Gabriel Osho is available again after his three-match ban. Krystian Bielik could return from his groin problem, though the manager only said he „may“ be back. Celestini is expected to stick with the side that drew at QPR, with Jamie Vardy leading the line and Armando Broja and Jordan Beyer both doubts.
Cardiff Team News & Preview
Cardiff are the most ambitious side in this fixture in possession terms – almost 60 per cent of the ball, six shots on target per game and 26 expected goals in 14 games. The problem is at the other end. They have shipped 23 goals and allowed 24.2 xG, and Wednesday was the clearest example yet: 3-0 up at half-time against West Ham, 3-3 at the end. Before that they were well beaten 3-0 at Wolves.
At home, though, the record holds up. Three wins and four draws from seven league games is not spectacular, but nobody has beaten them in Cardiff, and Jack Moylan, with nine league goals, gives them a reliable finisher. The concern for Barry-Murphy is fatigue: this is a third game in a week, and Cardiff had one day less to recover than Burnley.
What works for or against Cardiff
- Unbeaten in seven home league games this season.
- Jack Moylan has scored nine league goals.
- Threw away a 3-0 lead against West Ham on Wednesday.
- 23 goals conceded, and Ng and Bielik are both doubts.
Burnley Team News & Preview
The numbers explain why Burnley moved so quickly on Hayen. One win in 14, 26 goals conceded and a run of five points from their last five away games. Celestini has made them harder to beat in his first two matches – 0-0 with Portsmouth and 1-1 at QPR on Tuesday – but they have scored once in those 180 minutes, and he admitted afterwards that the squad’s confidence is the bigger issue.
Burnley’s only league win came 4-0 at Watford in early October, so they can hurt sides when things open up. Vardy’s experience matters in that respect, but the creative load sits heavily on Hatate and Edwards, and none of their forwards has more than three league goals.
What works for or against Burnley
- Two draws in Celestini's first two games, conceding just once.
- Only one league win all season.
- 26 goals conceded in 14 league games.
- Broja and Beyer are doubts.
Cardiff vs Burnley Odds
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Cardiff vs. Burnley Form Guide
Cardiff Form, Stats & Data
Cardiff’s table position does not match how they play. A side that creates 1.86 expected goals per game and puts six shots on target should not be 18th, and the main reason they are is a defence that allows almost as much as it creates. I expect chances at both ends, but Cardiff’s volume of attacks against a struggling Burnley back line is the strongest single factor in this game.
Burnley Form, Stats & Data
Burnley’s underlying numbers are poor rather than disastrous: 1.27 xG per game going forward and 1.59 against. The goals conceded column is worse than that, which points to individual errors and confidence as much as structure. Celestini’s first two games were cautious, and I expect more of the same in Cardiff, which suits a home side that will have most of the ball.
Cardiff vs Burnley: Prediction & Betting Tip
Cardiff have the better attack, the better home record and the form in front of goal through Moylan, while Burnley have won once all season and scored once in two games under their new coach. On balance I think Cardiff win this more often than not.
The strongest argument against them is the one they made themselves on Wednesday: a 3-0 lead thrown away, a third game in a week and a defence that leaks chances. Burnley have also become harder to beat under Celestini, and four of Cardiff’s seven home games ended level. That is why I want insurance on the draw rather than the straight win at 2.10. Cardiff City Draw No Bet at 1.62 with Winz is my bet at 4/10, and I expect a 2-1 home win.