Fourth-placed Stoke, but the numbers point to Fratton Park
Stoke arrive on the south coast fourth in the table and on a run of four straight away wins, the latest a 2-1 at Blackburn on Tuesday. Portsmouth have their own momentum: unbeaten in six league games and winners of their last three at Fratton Park, including a 3-1 against Swansea in midweek. The difference is in how those results have been earned, and that is where this fixture becomes interesting. John Mousinho has to manage without Marko Milovanovic, who picked up a quad injury against Swansea.
„We won’t see him this weekend.“ – John Mousinho on Marko Milovanovic (via Hayters)
Predicted lineups: Portsmouth vs Stoke
Milovanovic is out and Iyad Mohamed is a minor doubt with a knock, although Mousinho said his problem is nowhere near as serious. Tyrese Shade is expected to lead the line in the 4-2-3-1. Stoke should stay with the 3-4-3 that won at Blackburn, with Ethan Galbraith available again after a one-match ban. Aaron Cresswell and Sam Gallagher are close to returning but are unlikely to start.
Portsmouth Team News & Preview
Pompey’s run has been built on a solid base. They have conceded 16 goals in 14 games, allow 1.26 expected goals per match and are unbeaten in six league games. At home they have been particularly hard to play against, with wins over Millwall and Swansea in the last fortnight, and a fourth straight league win at Fratton Park would be their first such run since January 2025.
Losing Milovanovic is the main concern. Mousinho will have a scan on Friday to determine the extent of the quad injury, but he has already ruled him out for this game. Terry Devlin, who scored against Swansea, has been the side’s most productive player with four league goals from right-back.
What works for or against Portsmouth
- Unbeaten in six league games and three home wins in a row.
- Only 16 goals conceded, with 1.26 xG against per game.
- Milovanovic is out with a quad injury.
- Stoke have won their last four away league games.
Stoke Team News & Preview
Mark Robins has turned Stoke’s season around after three opening defeats, losing only once in 11 league games since. Their away form in particular has been excellent: wins at Blackburn on Tuesday and in three previous trips before that. Jack McGlynn, with four league goals, and Galbraith, with three goals and four assists, have driven it from midfield.
The underlying data is less flattering. Stoke have scored 22 goals from 14.8 expected goals and conceded 17 from 21.5 expected against. Few teams in the division sustain that kind of finishing and goalkeeping over a full season.
What works for or against Stoke
- Four away league wins in a row.
- Galbraith is back from suspension.
- 22 goals from only 14.8 expected goals.
- 21.5 expected goals conceded, far more than their 17 actual goals against.
Portsmouth vs Stoke Odds
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Portsmouth Form, Stats & Data
Portsmouth are an honest side in the numbers: 19 goals from 17.1 expected, 16 conceded from 17.7 expected against. Nothing in that profile looks lucky. They are not prolific, and without Milovanovic there is less of a focal point, but they rarely give much away and Fratton Park has become a difficult place to visit again.
Stoke City Form, Stats & Data
Stoke’s results deserve credit, but the gap between 1.06 xG for and 1.54 against is the profile of a mid-table side, not a top-four one. They have been clinical and their goalkeeper has done a lot of work. I respect the away run, but I do not think the underlying level supports making them anything other than the outsiders here.
Portsmouth vs Stoke: Prediction & Betting Tip
Both sides are in form, but Portsmouth’s form is supported by what they create and concede, while Stoke’s leans on finishing well above their chances. Pompey are at home, unbeaten in six and have the better expected goals figures at both ends, so I make them the more likely winners.
Stoke’s four straight away wins are the strongest argument against that, and the absence of Milovanovic takes something away from the home attack. With a tight game likely, I want my stake back if it finishes level. Portsmouth Draw No Bet at 1.63 with Winz is my bet at 3/10, and I am going for a 1-0 home win.