Ten without a win and a manager under pressure: Bolton’s away form meets a broken Derby defence
Pre-match update (20:15 CET): John Eustace is still in charge for tonight, so there is no new-manager bounce to factor in. The main change is on Derby’s side: Eustace confirmed on Thursday that Sammie Szmodics needs knee surgery and will miss around six weeks, which takes another starter out of a side that has scored 11 league goals. Bolton put Josh Sheehan and goalkeeper Gavin Bazunu through fitness tests this morning, and Eoin Toal remains out. The official team sheets were not yet published when I checked, so the lineups below are still my projection. My bet stays Bolton Draw No Bet at 1.96 with MyStake, stake 3/10. The odds quoted are from when this preview was published on Thursday; prices may have moved since.
Derby County have won one Championship game all season, against Portsmouth on 1 September, and the last two defeats were the heaviest yet: 4-1 at Millwall on Saturday and 4-0 at home to Norwich on Tuesday, when Norwich had 19 shots to Derby’s six. Asked afterwards whether he would still be in charge for the visit of Bolton, John Eustace said only: „We’ll have to wait and see.“ Bolton arrive 17th, but on the road they look like a different side, with ten points from their last four away league games after Sam Dalby’s winner at Charlton on Tuesday.
„To lose 4-0 at home after losing 4-1 at the weekend is not what we want, and it’s not acceptable.“ – John Eustace after the Norwich defeat (via Hayters)
Predicted lineups: Derby vs Bolton
Derby’s injury list is long, and most of it sits in defence. Eiran Cashin, Sondre Langås, Craig Forsyth, Derry Murkin and Charlie Taylor are all out, which is why Ryan Nyambe has been filling in at centre-back. Sammie Szmodics has since been ruled out for around six weeks after knee surgery, and David Ozoh is a doubt with a muscle problem. I have used the side that started against Norwich, with Blackett-Taylor coming in for Szmodics as my projection. Bolton are without John McAtee, Ethan Erhahon, Ryan Hardie and Eoin Toal. Josh Sheehan and Atsuki Ito picked up knocks at Charlton, and Sheehan and goalkeeper Gavin Bazunu faced fitness tests on Friday morning; Sheehan and Ito are in my projected XI but are not certain to start.
Derby Team News & Preview
The table is bad enough, but the underlying numbers are worse. Across 14 league games Derby average 1.01 expected goals and concede 2.00, and their last three opponents, Sheffield United, Millwall and Norwich, created 2.99, 3.73 and 2.40 expected goals against them. Pride Park has offered no protection either: Derby are still waiting for a home league win, with two draws, five defeats and four goals in seven games.
The pressure on Eustace cuts both ways. A squad playing for a manager whose job is on the line can produce a reaction, and Derby will be desperate for one. But the problem is as much about personnel as mood. With so many defenders injured, the back four is being patched together, and the quick turnaround between Millwall and Norwich left little time on the training pitch to fix it.
What works for or against Derby
- Ten league games without a win, seven of them lost.
- Only 3.7 shots on target per game and 0.79 goals per game.
- Cashin, Forsyth, Murkin, Langås and Charlie Taylor are all injured.
- Eustace's future is in doubt, which could bring a reaction from the players.
Bolton Team News & Preview
Sam Dalby’s sixth goal of the season settled Tuesday’s game at The Valley, and it fitted a pattern. Steven Schumacher’s side have been far more comfortable away from home than in front of their own supporters: they won 4-3 at Norwich, 3-1 at Wolves and 1-0 at Charlton, and drew 0-0 at Southampton, while five of their seven home games have ended in defeat.
The weakness is the defence. Bolton allow 1.99 expected goals per game, Middlesbrough had 31 shots in a 5-1 win in Bolton last month, and Bristol City scored three there on Saturday. The difference is at the other end: Bolton average 1.34 expected goals and 4.6 shots on target per game, and their 19 league goals are eight more than Derby have managed.
What works for or against Bolton
- Three wins and a draw from their last four away league games.
- Dalby has six league goals, twice as many as any Derby player.
- 1.99 expected goals conceded per game, almost identical to Derby.
- Sheehan and Ito carried knocks out of the win at Charlton.
Derby vs Bolton Odds
Match Result
Double Chance
Handicap
Over/Under
Both Teams to Score
Derby vs. Bolton Stats Comparison
Show Recent Results
Derby vs. Bolton Form Guide
Derby Form, Stats & Data
Derby’s defensive numbers are poor, but their attack is the real problem: 0.79 goals per game and fewer than four shots on target. A side that scores this rarely needs to keep things tight to win, and their last three opponents have all created more than two expected goals.
Bolton Form, Stats & Data
Bolton are no defensive model, but they take more shots, hit the target more often and score almost twice as many goals per game as Derby. Away from home they have lost only two of their seven league games.
Derby vs Bolton: Prediction & Betting Tip
The best case for Derby is the one that does not show up in the numbers: a home crowd, a manager fighting for his job and a squad stung by two thrashings in four days. Bolton’s own defence has been opened up repeatedly, so a Derby goal or two would not be a shock, and a nervy draw is a realistic outcome.
Still, the gap on the ball is hard to ignore. Bolton create more, score more and have been dependable on the road, while Derby have one win in 14 and a back line built from whoever is fit. I am backing Bolton Draw No Bet at 1.96 with MyStake, which hands my stake back if Derby hold on for a point. The stake is 3/10, and my prediction is a 2-1 away win.