Second place on goals, not on chances: VVV’s injuries meet a stubborn Jong PSV
Pre-match update (19:05 CET): VVV have confirmed that Leon Schmidt and Nassim Ait Mouhou are both out for several weeks with muscle injuries from the MVV game, so the one scenario that would have made me cut this bet, both of them starting, is off the table. Captain Alex Schalk and Jay de Graef are still missing, Mohammed Odriss serves the second game of his ban after his red card against Vitesse, and local reporting has a question mark over Éanna Clancy. Jong PSV are without Madi Monamay after his red card at NAC. Marinus Dijkhuizen admitted it is hard to know which players Jong PSV will bring, given how much movement there is with the first-team squad, and that remains the main unknown. The bet stays Double Chance X2 at 2.24 with MyStake at 2/10. The odds quoted are from 5 November; prices may have moved since. The line-ups below are still my projection.
VVV-Venlo sit second with 36 goals, the kind of return that makes them clear favourites against 13th-placed Jong PSV. Look a little closer and the picture is less comfortable. Marinus Dijkhuizen’s side have been outshot at home this season, and they ended last week’s nervy 2-1 win at MVV without striker Leon Schmidt, who went off after 23 minutes, and Nassim Ait Mouhou, who also had to come off.
VVV have faced more shots than they have taken in their six home league games: 17.5 against 14.2 per match.
Predicted lineups: VVV vs Jong PSV
VVV have ruled out Schmidt and Ait Mouhou with muscle injuries, while Alex Schalk, Jay de Graef and the suspended Mohammed Odriss are also unavailable. Mattheos Tsigkas, who came on and scored at MVV, is my projection to lead the line, with Zuliani coming in on the right in place of Ait Mouhou. Jong PSV lost centre-back Madi Monamay to a straight red card against NAC and I do not expect him to be available, so Lyfe Oldenstam is my projection alongside Fabian Merién. Sami Ouaissa is injured until mid-November.
VVV Team News & Preview
Lars de Blok is the engine of this side. The full-back has nine assists, more than anyone else at the club has goals, and he is VVV’s highest-rated player on FotMob. Up front, Éanna Clancy and Schmidt have five league goals each, so losing Schmidt takes away one of the two players who have turned De Blok’s deliveries into goals.
The results flatter the performances. Over 13 league games VVV have taken fewer shots than their opponents, and they went out of the KNVB Cup at home to Vitesse last week before grinding out the win at MVV, where local coverage noted how few counter-attacks they managed without a quick winger.
What works for or against VVV
- Second in the table with 36 goals in 13 league games.
- De Blok has nine assists from full-back.
- Schmidt and Ait Mouhou are out with muscle injuries.
- Outshot 17.5 to 14.2 per game at home.
Jong PSV Team News & Preview
Jong PSV have lost three of their last four league games, but Monday’s defeat by NAC needs context: they went down to ten men after 24 minutes and held out until the 75th minute, with NAC hitting the woodwork twice. Stijn Schaars‘ side keep the ball well, averaging 53 per cent possession, and they have scored eight goals in six away games.
Austyn Jones is their top scorer with six, though he was not in the starting line-up against NAC. Fabio Kluit, with three assists, is their best-rated player and the one most likely to create something against a VVV back line that gives up a lot of shots.
What works for or against Jong PSV
- Three defeats in their last four league games.
- Centre-back Monamay is likely to miss out after his red card.
- Held NAC for 75 minutes with ten men.
- Young squads like this can change from week to week depending on first-team needs.
VVV vs Jong PSV Odds
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Venlo vs. Jong PSV Stats Comparison
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Venlo vs. Jong PSV Form Guide
Venlo Form, Stats & Data
Nearly 2.8 goals per game from fewer than 15 shots is an exceptional conversion rate, and it is the figure I trust least in this whole fixture. Without the shot numbers to back it up, VVV are more vulnerable than second place suggests, particularly with two attackers now ruled out.
Jong PSV Form, Stats & Data
Jong PSV concede plenty of shots away from home, 18.5 per game, so this is not a team I would trust to keep things tight. What they do offer is enough of the ball and enough attacking quality to make an open game against a VVV side that has been outshot at De Koel.
VVV vs Jong PSV: Prediction & Betting Tip
This is a bet against VVV’s finishing rather than a bet on Jong PSV’s form, and I want to be upfront about that. Even without Schmidt and Ait Mouhou, VVV can win this comfortably if they keep converting at their current rate, and Jong PSV could turn up with a weaker side than usual if the first team needs bodies.
I still want to be with the visitors at 2.24 against a home side that takes fewer shots than its opponents and is now missing two attackers. I can see a 2-2 here. Double Chance X2 at 2.24 with MyStake is a speculative angle, so it gets 2/10 and no more.