Bottom of the table and a centre-back short: Dresden face Klaus and Fürth
Pre-match update (16:45 CET): Dynamo’s own preview confirms the absences this bet is built on: Müller is suspended after his second yellow at Hannover, Herrmann is injured, Schmidt and Bünning are long-term absentees, and Thomas Keller is ruled out as well, so Keller is no longer an option at centre-back. Brooklyn Ezeh is also suspended after a red card for the U21s. Nothing from the Fürth camp suggests Klaus is a doubt, and Heiko Vogel described Dresden as “a battered boxer who is very dangerous” (via dpa, translated from German). The official lineups are not out yet, so the XIs below are still my projection. Tip and stake stay the same: Double Chance X2 at 1.85 with MyStake, 2/10. The odds quoted are from 5 November; prices may have moved since.
Dynamo Dresden go into the last game before the international break in 18th place and with a hole in the middle of their defence. Friedrich Müller was sent off in Sunday’s 2-1 defeat at Hannover, a game Dresden led at half-time, and Luca Herrmann suffered a foot injury in the same match that will keep him out until the end of the year. Greuther Fürth, ninth and four points better off, arrive with a fit first-choice attack built around Felix Klaus.
„The table position only matters on the 34th matchday.“ – Thomas Stamm after the defeat at Hannover (via Sky/dpa, translated from German)
Predicted lineups: Dresden vs Fürth
Stamm has to find a new partner for Nicolai Rapp. Kenneth Schmidt and Lars Bünning are injured and Thomas Keller is also out, so Lukas Boeder is my projection for that slot rather than a confirmed choice. Otherwise I expect the side that started at Hannover. Fürth should name the XI that beat Holstein Kiel, with Maxim Dal and Benjamin Zank the only absentees.
Dresden Team News & Preview
Hannover was a familiar story. Rapp headed Dresden in front from a Rossipal corner after 11 minutes, Rossipal hit the post, and then the game turned after the break: Hannover equalised, Müller was sent off, Hannover scored from the spot after his foul, and the hosts finished with 2.53 expected goals to Dresden’s 1.55. Stamm pointed to the dismissal as the moment the afternoon slipped away, and sporting director Sören Gonther has publicly backed his coach.
At home Dresden have been tidier, with wins over Darmstadt and Magdeburg and narrow defeats to Bochum and leaders Hertha, plus a 2-0 cup win over Schalke last week. But across the season they concede almost two expected goals per game, and they now lose a regular centre-back and a midfielder who had been coming off the bench.
What works for or against Dresden
- Two home league wins from four, plus a 2-0 cup win over Schalke on 28 October.
- Müller is suspended and Schmidt and Bünning are injured, leaving the centre of defence thin.
- An average of 1.95 expected goals conceded per league game.
Fürth Team News & Preview
Klaus is the story. Seven of Fürth’s 13 league goals are his, and he is also their highest-rated player on FotMob. Heiko Vogel’s side were fortunate to beat Kiel, winning through Aaron Keller’s 87th-minute goal after the visitors had been reduced to ten men and having created less, but over the whole season their numbers are steadier than Dresden’s.
Away from home Fürth have won at Cottbus, drawn at St. Pauli and Bochum, and lost at Hertha and Osnabrück. The 3-0 at Osnabrück is the warning sign, but in four of those five trips they produced at least one expected goal.
What works for or against Fürth
- Klaus has seven league goals and the first-choice attack is fit.
- The win over Kiel came with only 0.74 expected goals and against ten men.
- One away win in five, and a 3-0 defeat at Osnabrück two weeks ago.
- A better expected-goal difference than Dresden across ten games.
Dresden vs Fürth Odds
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Dresden vs. Greuther Furth Stats Comparison
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Dresden vs. Greuther Furth Form Guide
Dresden Form, Stats & Data
Dresden have more of the ball than Fürth and take a similar number of shots, but 1.95 expected goals against per game is a relegation-zone figure, and it is the one that matters with Müller missing. No Dresden player has more than two league goals, which leaves them relying on set pieces such as Rapp’s header at Hannover.
Greuther Furth Form, Stats & Data
Fürth’s numbers are those of a mid-table side: nothing spectacular, but a third of a goal per game better than Dresden on expected-goal difference. They lean heavily on Klaus, which is a risk if he is shut down, but he gives them a finisher Dresden simply do not have this season.
Dresden vs Fürth: Prediction & Betting Tip
Dresden are favourites here, and the reasons are fair enough: home advantage, a good recent run in their own stadium and the lift from knocking Schalke out of the cup. I just do not think the bottom side, now short of a centre-back, should be such a clear pick against an opponent whose underlying numbers have been better all season.
The gaps in my information keep this small. Dresden had not published anything from their pre-match press conference when this was written, Dresden’s back line is a projection, and Fürth’s away record includes that 3-0 at Osnabrück. So Double Chance X2 at 1.85 with MyStake gets only 2/10. I see it ending 1-1.