Six home games, six wins: can Roda even get a shot away in Almelo?
Pre-match update (19:05 CET): The official line-ups had not been published at the time of this check, so the XIs below are still predicted; I will add the confirmed teams before kick-off. Nothing new has come out of either camp to change the picture: Heilmann confirmed Max Hauswirth will play in a mask after breaking his nose against TOP Oss, Mario Engels remains out, and there is no fresh news on De Keijzer or Seedorf. My bet stays Roda JC Kerkrade under 0.5 team goals at 2.57 with MyStake, 3/10. The odds quoted are from 5 November; prices may have moved since.
Heracles are running away with the Keuken Kampioen Divisie at home. Six wins out of six, 18 goals scored and just four conceded, and visitors to the Asito Stadion have averaged 2.3 shots on target a game. Roda JC arrive in fourth place on the back of four straight wins in all competitions, built on a tight defence rather than goals: only 17 scored in 13 league games.
Heracles have taken 24 shots per home league game this season and allowed eight.
Predicted lineups: Heracles vs Roda
The one doubt for Vincent Heilmann is in goal: Fabian de Keijzer is listed with a hip problem that is expected to keep him out for a few days, so his place is not certain. The rest of the side that beat TOP Oss should start, with Jean-Paul N’Djoli leading the line. Rob Penders is waiting on Cain Seedorf, who went off injured in the first half against Jong AZ, while Zakarya Khaldi and Dyon Dorenbosch are not available.
Heracles Team News & Preview
Heilmann called Monday’s 2-0 over TOP Oss a matter of getting the three points after the disappointment of going out of the KNVB Cup, and it was a game his side controlled without needing to be brilliant: TOP Oss did not register a shot on target. That is the pattern at home. Heracles have won every game in Almelo, with clean sheets against De Graafschap, Vitesse, RKC and TOP Oss.
Jean-Paul N’Djoli is the reference point with 12 league goals, and Chafik Abbas has supplied six assists. The numbers behind the top spot are not a fluke either: Heracles average 22.5 shots per game and allow 9.2, a gap that leaves little room for doubt about who controls their matches.
What works for or against Heracles
- Six home wins from six, with four clean sheets.
- N'Djoli has 12 league goals and a FotMob rating of 8.12.
- First-choice goalkeeper De Keijzer is a doubt with a hip problem.
Roda Team News & Preview
Penders has talked this week about looking for the right balance between more attractive football and staying solid, and Roda’s season explains why. They have conceded only 12 league goals, even fewer than leaders Heracles, but they have scored just 17. Away from home the attack has been patchy: they drew a blank at Emmen, Jong Ajax and VVV-Venlo, and needed an Anthony van den Hurk hat-trick to win 3-2 at Almere.
The last two weeks have been better, with four wins in all competitions including a 2-1 over Jong AZ, though local coverage described that one as businesslike with few chances. Van den Hurk has six league goals, and if Seedorf misses out Roda lose one of the players who links midfield to the striker.
What works for or against Roda
- Four straight wins in all competitions and only 12 league goals conceded.
- Seven away goals in seven league games and blanks in three of them.
- Seedorf is a doubt and Khaldi and Dorenbosch are out.
Heracles vs Roda Odds
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Heracles vs. Roda JC Stats Comparison
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Heracles vs. Roda JC Form Guide
Heracles Form, Stats & Data
The defensive figure that matters is not the 1.08 goals conceded per game but the 2.8 shots on target Heracles allow, falling to 2.3 at home. Teams do not just fail to score in Almelo; they rarely get the chance to try. Two of the four home goals conceded came in a 3-2 against Den Bosch, the other two in a 3-2 against Jong AZ, both games Heracles had already put out of reach for long spells.
Roda JC Form, Stats & Data
Roda’s best player by rating is a defender, Marco Tol, which says a lot about where their points come from. With 12.5 shots per game and five on target, they are a side that wins tight games rather than one that creates a stream of chances, and that profile is exactly what struggles against a team that takes the ball off you for 90 minutes.
Heracles vs Roda: Prediction & Betting Tip
Heracles at 1.43 is short for my liking against a side that has conceded only 12 goals, so I would rather look at Roda’s attack. They have scored seven goals in seven away games, drew a blank in three of them, and now face a side that allows fewer shots on target at home than anyone in the division.
The goalkeeper question is what keeps the stake down. If De Keijzer does not make it, a less familiar keeper behind that back four gives Roda more hope from set pieces and long-range efforts. Roda have also found a way to score in each of their last four games. Even so, I can see this going 2-0 to the leaders, and Roda JC Kerkrade under 0.5 team goals at 2.57 with MyStake gets 3/10.