Toulouse keep creating at home – can Strasbourg create anything on the road?
Toulouse have generated more than nine expected goals in four home league games and scored three. That mismatch has cost Jens Berthel Askou points, but it also tells you how rarely visitors have been allowed to settle at the Stadium. Strasbourg come in on the back of a 5-1 win over Auxerre, yet away from home Hugo Oliveira’s side have looked like a different team, and they travel without Fabio Baldé, injured against PSG.
„We weren’t able to follow our plan.“ – Jens Berthel Askou after the 2-0 defeat at Marseille (via Coeur Marseillais, translated from French)
Predicted lineups: Toulouse vs Strasbourg
Toulouse lose Aron Dønnum to suspension and right-back Rafik Messali, who tore a thigh muscle against Troyes, is out until December. Sion Oppong is projected to replace Dønnum on the left of midfield. Oliveira says the group is the same as last week apart from Baldé and the long-term absentee Joaquín Panichelli, though there is some disagreement between local projections over his back four and the second holding midfielder.
Toulouse Team News & Preview
Askou’s verdict on Marseille was blunt: the plan was to press higher and play more directly, and Toulouse conceded twice inside 25 minutes before they had done either. The second half was a different story. They finished the game with more expected goals than Marseille, 1.90 to 1.29, had two goals ruled out for offside and forced six saves from the Marseille goalkeeper.
That has been the season in miniature. Toulouse have scored 11 of their 12 league goals after half-time and remain one of the league’s better chance creators, with 1.88 expected goals per game, but the finishing has not kept pace. At home the defensive side has been solid: Lyon and Lille won here with fewer than 1.25 expected goals each, and Troyes left with a 0-0 after producing almost nothing.
What works for or against Toulouse
- Strong chance creation at home, with more than two expected goals per game.
- Only three goals in four home league games and one win from them.
- Dønnum is suspended and Messali is out until December.
- Visitors have averaged 1.16 expected goals at the Stadium, with Troyes held to 0.39.
Strasbourg Team News & Preview
The 5-1 over Auxerre needs a footnote. Strasbourg led 3-1 when Auxerre went down to ten men in the 74th minute, and Gessime Yassine added two more against a depleted side. Before that came four straight league defeats, and Oliveira is still under scrutiny after supporters criticised his substitutions in October.
On the road the attack has been patchy. Strasbourg were held scoreless at Marseille and Rennes, and in Paris and Nice they generated 0.24 and 0.63 expected goals. The one outlier was a chaotic 6-2 at Troyes. Yassine, with four goals and three assists, is their best player by some distance, and Baldé’s absence removes one of the options who could support him from wide.
What works for or against Strasbourg
- They have scored in seven of nine league games and Yassine is in form.
- Away expected goals of 0.18, 0.24, 0.63 and 0.89 outside the 6-2 at Troyes.
- Baldé is a new absentee and Panichelli is out long term.
- Five days of rest, the same as Toulouse.
Toulouse vs Strasbourg Odds
Match Result
Double Chance
Handicap
Over/Under
Both Teams to Score
Half-Time/Full-Time
Toulouse vs. Strasbourg Stats Comparison
Show Recent Results
Toulouse vs. Strasbourg Form Guide
Toulouse Form, Stats & Data
The 1.34 expected goals against is the number I keep coming back to. It is a respectable figure across nine games, and at home it falls further, which is why the 13 goals conceded look worse than the defending has been. Cásseres, with five assists, is the reason the chance count stays high even when the forwards misfire.
Strasbourg Form, Stats & Data
Strasbourg’s 1.89 goals per game sits well above their 1.34 expected goals, and two games, the 6-2 at Troyes and the 5-1 against ten-man Auxerre, account for 11 of their 17 goals. Take those away and you are left with a side that struggles to create, particularly on the road.
Toulouse vs Strasbourg: Prediction & Betting Tip
This is an outsider’s angle, so I want to be clear about the size of it. Strasbourg have scored in seven of nine league games, and a side with Yassine in this kind of form can find a goal from very little. Over a 90-minute game against a Toulouse team that pushes bodies forward, one counter or one set piece is enough to lose this bet.
What tips it for me is the quality of their away chances once you set aside the Troyes game, combined with a Toulouse defence that has allowed very little at home and the loss of Baldé. I can see Toulouse finally turning pressure into a 1-0 or 2-0. Strasbourg under 0.5 team goals at 3.61 with MyStake is a speculative play, so it is a 2/10 stake and no more.