Nine games without a clean sheet meets Ajax’s in-form attack
Pre-match update (17:50 CET): The team sheets are in. Midtjylland switch to a 4-4-2 with Friday Etim and Cho Gue-sung up front, while Mileta Rajović and Stanley Iheanacho start on the bench. Julian Brandt and Sofyan Amrabat did not travel to Herning, so Ajax lose their top scorer and their holding midfielder, but Tolu Arokodare leads the line and Thilo Kehrer comes into the back four. Losing Amrabat in front of the defence makes Ajax easier to get at, which suits the bet, so I am sticking with Both Teams to Score – Yes at 1.46 with MyStake (4/10). The odds quoted are from 4 November; prices may have moved since.
Midtjylland’s season makes little sense on paper. Mike Tullberg’s side top the Superliga and are unbeaten after 13 games, yet they have one point from two Conference League games and have not kept a clean sheet in nine matches in all competitions. Ajax arrive on a four-game winning run, with ten goals in those games, and they have injuries of their own to work around.
Predicted lineups: Midtjylland vs Ajax
Both line-ups are now confirmed. Midtjylland are without centre-back Martin Erlić, midfielder Magnus Jensen, Mikel Gogorza, David Martínez and goalkeeper Elías Ólafsson, so Nordin Bakker starts in goal. Mike Tullberg has gone to a back four, with Denil Castillo, Philip Billing, Kjell Wätjen and Sofus Johannesen in midfield and Friday Etim alongside Cho Gue-sung, who makes his 100th appearance for the club. Rajović and Iheanacho are among the options on the bench. For Ajax, Julian Brandt and Sofyan Amrabat did not travel, and Kasper Dolberg, Caio Henrique, Viktor Tsygankov and Anton Gaaei are also missing. Míchel goes 4-3-3: Thilo Kehrer and Dies Janse are in the middle of defence, Youri Baas steps into midfield with Davy Klaassen and Jorthy Mokio, and Arokodare is flanked by Abdellah Ouazane and Oscar Gloukh. Daley Blind and Steven Berghuis are on the bench.
FC Midtjylland Team News & Preview
Domestically, Midtjylland keep finding ways to win: nine wins and four draws, 27 goals and the second-best rating in the league. The latest was a 3-2 win at Nordsjælland on Sunday, another game in which they conceded more than once. Philip Billing, with four assists, is the player who makes them tick.
Europe has been the problem. They drew 1-1 in Albania with Egnatia and lost 1-0 at home to Sint-Truiden. With Erlić and Jensen missing, the spine of the defence and midfield is weaker than usual.
What works for or against Midtjylland
- Unbeaten in 13 Superliga games.
- 2.1 goals per league game.
- No clean sheet in nine matches.
- Erlić and Magnus Jensen both out.
Ajax Team News & Preview
Ajax have the best passing numbers in the Eredivisie and score 2.7 goals per game, with seven shots on target on average. They won 5-2 at Groningen, 2-0 against Atalanta, 2-1 at Sparta and 1-0 against AZ in their last four.
The missing players matter, though. Brandt is their top scorer with six league goals and their highest-rated player, and Dolberg is out. Tolu Arokodare, who scores at a rate of a goal per 90 minutes, will lead the line.
What works for or against Ajax
- Four straight wins in all competitions.
- 2.7 goals per Eredivisie game.
- Brandt, Amrabat and Dolberg all missing.
- Lost 2-1 at Hajduk Split on matchday one.
Midtjylland vs Ajax Odds
Match Result
Double Chance
Handicap
Over/Under
Both Teams to Score
Midtjylland vs. Ajax Stats Comparison
Show Recent Results
Midtjylland vs. Ajax Form Guide
Midtjylland Form, Stats & Data
Midtjylland are winning games by outscoring opponents rather than shutting them out, and they score a lot from set pieces.
Ajax Form, Stats & Data
Ajax create 2.36 expected goals per league game, so even without Brandt and Dolberg they should create chances against a weakened defence.
Midtjylland vs Ajax: Prediction & Betting Tip
I find it hard to pick a winner, but easy to see goals at both ends. Midtjylland have not kept a clean sheet in nine matches, are missing Erlić at the back and face an Ajax side scoring almost three a game. Ajax concede more than a goal per game themselves and Midtjylland average two goals per league game.
Both sides are missing attackers, and Midtjylland have only one goal in two European games. That is the risk. But this has the look of an open game between two sides who score more than they keep out, so I am happy to put 4/10 on Both Teams to Score – Yes at 1.46 with MyStake. My score is 2-2.