Charlton have stopped scoring, and The Valley has stopped producing goals
Nathan Jones called his side „a bit fragile“ after Tuesday’s 1-0 home defeat to Bolton, their fourth league loss in a row. Charlton have not won in the league since the end of August and are only four points clear of the relegation zone. Sheffield United, by contrast, arrive on the back of a Sydie Peck hat-trick in a 3-2 win at Preston and are pushing towards the play-off places. The obvious angle is an away win, but the clearer pattern in this fixture is the scoreline.
„We’re a bit fragile at the minute.“ – Nathan Jones after the Bolton defeat (via cafc.co.uk)
Predicted lineups: Charlton vs Sheffield United
Jones has few injury problems beyond the long-term absence of Collins Sichenje, but Nathaniel Chalobah was replaced at half-time on Tuesday and is a doubt. Will Mannion kept goal against Bolton. Chris Wilder is expected to keep his 4-4-2 with Tom Cannon and Ben Brereton up front, as Patrick Bamford is a doubt and Ryan Oné and Jamie Shackleton are out.
Charlton Team News & Preview
Eleven goals in 14 league games tells most of the story. Charlton average 0.93 expected goals and 2.7 shots on target per match, the weakest attacking figures in this fixture by some distance, and Tyreece Campbell is the only player with more than two league goals. The last four games have brought one goal in total: defeats to Watford, Norwich, Middlesbrough and Bolton, with the Bolton winner coming from a midfield error rather than sustained pressure.
At The Valley, the games have been tight rather than open. Seven home league fixtures have produced only 11 goals, with Charlton scoring five and conceding six. Jones‘ teams are organised without the ball, sit at 43 per cent possession on average and are comfortable keeping games low on chances.
What works for or against Charlton
- Only six goals conceded in seven home league games.
- Four straight league defeats and no league win since the end of August.
- 11 league goals scored, with 0.93 xG per game.
- Chalobah is a doubt after coming off at half-time on Tuesday.
Sheffield United Team News & Preview
Wilder’s side are W2 D1 in their last three, but they are not a free-scoring team. They have 20 league goals from 17.7 expected goals and allow 1.36 xG per game, numbers that describe a well-drilled side rather than a dominant one. Peck’s hat-trick at Preston came in a 3-2 game, and their away matches have been livelier, with 21 goals in seven trips.
That away record is the reason I want to look carefully at this bet. The flip side is that their attack has lost its focal point: Bamford, their top scorer with five, is a doubt, and the Blades already have to cope without Oné and Shackleton.
What works for or against Sheffield United
- Seven points from their last three league games.
- Top scorer Patrick Bamford is a doubt.
- 21 goals in seven away league games.
- Both sides played on Tuesday, so recovery time is equal.
Charlton vs Sheffield United Odds
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Charlton Form, Stats & Data
Charlton’s attack is the key to my view of this game. Under a goal per match, under one expected goal per match and fewer than three shots on target – there is very little evidence that they can turn this into a shoot-out. Away from home they have been opened up, but The Valley has been a different story, and I expect Jones to set up to stop the run of defeats first.
Sheffield Utd Form, Stats & Data
Sheffield United are a functional side rather than an explosive one: 1.26 expected goals per game and 3.9 shots on target, with their best-rated player a holding midfielder in Kalvin Phillips. They can win this, but I see them doing it narrowly, and without Bamford their main penalty-box presence is missing.
Charlton vs Sheffield United: Prediction & Betting Tip
Charlton have scored one goal in four games and average 0.93 xG, and their home matches have averaged fewer than two goals. Sheffield United are better, but not by enough to suggest they will run up a score, especially with Bamford doubtful. I think this is more likely to finish 1-0 or 1-1 than anything bigger.
The strongest counter-argument is the Blades‘ away record: 21 goals in seven games on the road, and a 3-2 at Preston on Tuesday. If Sheffield United score early and Charlton have to come out, the game can open up. I still think the home side’s lack of a cutting edge is the stronger factor. Under 2.5 Goals at 1.84 with Winz is my bet at 4/10, and I expect a 1-0 away win.