Stiller out, Karazor bleeding, Füllkrug on a seven-game run: Stuttgart’s midfield is the weak spot
Sebastian Hoeneß has a holding-midfield problem at exactly the wrong moment. Angelo Stiller is out until after the international break, Atakan Karazor lasted 18 minutes in Istanbul before an MRI showed bleeding in his thigh, and the man most likely to fill the gap is 19-year-old Yanik Spalt. Coming through the middle the other way is a Werder side who are unbeaten in seven league games, and a striker who has scored in each of his last seven Bundesliga outings.
Niclas Füllkrug has scored in seven consecutive Bundesliga games, equalling Rudi Völler’s club record from 1982/83, and leads the league with nine goals.
Predicted lineups: Stuttgart vs Bremen
Stuttgart’s shape depends on who can play in front of the defence. Bundesliga.com expects a back three of Mittelstädt, Chabot and Jaquez, with Grischa Prömel – who picked up a knock in Turkey but is expected to be fit – alongside Spalt. Karazor is listed as doubtful; Hoeneß said only that his availability was not yet final. Werder have nine players out, the newest being Mitchell Weiser, who went off early against Hoffenheim with a muscle injury. Jens Stage, Felix Agu, Skelly Alvero and Salim Musah are also missing, so Youri Regeer and Ludovit Reis should continue in midfield, with Eren Dinkçi stepping in for Weiser.
Stuttgart Team News & Preview
Last Saturday Stuttgart looked like a side capable of beating anyone. They won 4-2 at Leverkusen, inflicted the first home defeat of Leverkusen’s season and racked up 3.23 expected goals, with Ermedin Demirović scoring twice. Three days later the picture was very different in Istanbul: Galatasaray were 2-0 up at half-time, Leweling hit the post twice and Stuttgart did not register a shot on target until the 58th minute.
The bigger issue is who controls the middle of the pitch. Stiller has been the side’s chief creator from deep and has two of their league assists; Karazor is the screen in front of the back line. With both missing or compromised, Spalt and Prömel will have to deal with Reis, Regeer and Chuki running at them on tired legs. Home form offers little reassurance either: a 4-1 win over Köln has been followed by defeats to Dortmund and Gladbach.
What works for or against Stuttgart
- Demirović has five league goals and Stuttgart created more than three expected goals at Leverkusen.
- Stiller is out and Karazor is doubtful, so the double pivot rests on Spalt and a not fully fit Prömel.
- This is their third game in seven days, after a trip to Istanbul.
- One win from three home league games, with defeats to Dortmund and Gladbach.
Bremen Team News & Preview
Nine absentees would derail most mid-table sides, yet Werder keep finding a way. Daniel Thioune’s side beat Hoffenheim 2-0 last weekend despite losing Weiser early on, and they have not been beaten in seven league matches. Their only Bundesliga defeat came at Freiburg. Away from home they have lost just once in four, drawing at Dortmund and winning 3-2 at Mainz.
Füllkrug is the obvious reason. He has nine league goals from 656 minutes, has scored in seven straight games and earned a Germany recall this week. The service matters as much as the finishing: Marco Grüll has seven league assists, more than anyone else in the squad, and is the side’s highest-rated player on FotMob. The Hoffenheim win also showed the other side of Werder – 0.94 expected goals is not a lot, and the injury list leaves little cover if the game turns physical.
What works for or against Bremen
- Unbeaten in seven league games, with only one away defeat this season.
- Grüll's seven assists and Füllkrug's nine goals give them a clear route to goal.
- No midweek game: Werder last played on Saturday.
- Nine players are out, including Weiser, Stage and Agu, so the bench is thin.
Stuttgart vs Bremen Odds
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Stuttgart Form, Stats & Data
The 2.41 expected goals conceded per game is the number I keep coming back to. Stuttgart create plenty – 2.06 xG per match is among the best in the league – but only Augsburg allow better chances against them, and that was with Stiller and Karazor available for most of the season. Mittelstädt has been their most consistent performer, which fits a side that is far more comfortable going forward than protecting a lead. Three wins and five defeats from eight league games tell you the balance is off.
Bremen Form, Stats & Data
Werder have scored 17 goals from 13.9 expected, so some of their finishing has run hot, almost entirely through Füllkrug. What makes them dangerous here is the type of game they play: less of the ball, quick service to Grüll and Füllkrug, and 6.6 shots on target per match – more than Stuttgart manage. Against a home midfield without its two best ball-winners, those transitions look like the main threat.
Stuttgart vs Bremen: Prediction & Betting Tip
Stuttgart are rightly favourites on talent alone, and the Leverkusen performance showed what they can do going forward. But the circumstances have swung towards Werder this week. Stuttgart have lost their two senior holding midfielders, they are coming off a draining trip to Istanbul, and their defensive numbers were among the league’s worst even before those absences. Werder arrive fresh, unbeaten in seven and with the league’s form striker.
What worries me is Werder’s own injury list and the fact that Stuttgart can blow anyone away when Demirović, Undav and Leweling click, as they did at the BayArena. That is exactly why I want the draw on my side rather than an away win. I am taking Double Chance X2 at 2.24 with Winz for 4/10, and I can see this one finishing 2-2.