Standard are in crisis, but Beveren have barely scored away from home
Pre-match update (19:50 CET): The official team sheets are not out yet, so the lineups below are the latest projections from the Belgian press (La DH, Walfoot). Standard look set to go 4-4-2 with Bruny Nsimba up front, Henry Lawrence at right-back for Fossey and Matthieu Epolo back in goal. Ibe Hautekiet and Gustav Mortensen are both expected to keep their places, so the back four changes in only one position. Beveren are without Jearl Margaritha, who has a minor injury and is not in the squad, and he has been their most regular shooter on target. It is still unclear whether Chris Lokesa starts. Nothing here weakens the case, but without confirmed lineups I am keeping the bet and the stake at 2/10. The odds quoted are from Thursday afternoon, when the preview was published; prices may have moved since.
Standard Liège have taken one point from their last five league games, and Saturday’s 1-1 draw with Kortrijk ended with the Sclessin crowd turning on the team; Vincent Euvrard called it his side’s worst performance of the season. Then came worse news on Wednesday: captain Marlon Fossey hurt his knee in training, and the club fear the worst. Yet the visitors are hardly in a position to exploit it. Beveren have one point from five away league games, and they have drawn a blank at Zulte Waregem, Genk and Kortrijk.
„Marlon Fossey has probably injured his knee very seriously this morning. We fear the worst.“ – Vincent Euvrard on Wednesday (via Walfoot, translated from French)
Predicted lineups: Standard vs Beveren
Fossey, who is feared to have ruptured a cruciate ligament, joins Dimitri Lavalée, Casper Nielsen, Bernard Nguene and Noah Sy on Standard’s absentee list, and Mohamed El Hankouri is also listed among the absentees by La DH. Epolo is back after his concussion. The official lineups were not out at the time of this update, so I have used La DH’s latest projection: a 4-4-2 with Lawrence in for Fossey, Nsimba alongside Andi Zeqiri and Dennis Eckert on the bench. Beveren are missing Jearl Margaritha (minor injury). La DH has Christian Brüls replacing him and top scorer Chris Lokesa on the bench again, although Walfoot expects Lokesa to start.
Standard Team News & Preview
The mood around Sclessin is the main story, but the numbers are less alarming than the results. Standard average 1.90 expected goals per game, and they out-created Charleroi in a 1-0 home defeat last month. At home they have also been reasonably solid: La Louvière, Antwerp and Charleroi each created around one expected goal there, and the first two left without scoring.
The concern is who will be defending. With Fossey and Lavalée both out, Euvrard has to rearrange his back four again, and Kortrijk found more space on Saturday than any of those earlier visitors, with 1.64 expected goals. A nervous side under pressure from its own crowd can also leave gaps in the closing stages.
What works for or against Standard
- 1.90 expected goals per game, the stronger attacking profile of the two sides.
- Clean sheets at home against La Louvière and Antwerp.
- One point from the last five league games.
- Defenders Fossey and Lavalée are both out.
Beveren Team News & Preview
Tim Bakens’s side are two different teams depending on the venue. At home they have beaten OH Leuven 3-0 and Sint-Truiden 2-0; away from home they have one point and a 5-15 goal record. Four of those five away goals came in a chaotic 4-4 draw at Westerlo, and in the blanks at Zulte Waregem, Genk and Kortrijk they created 0.80, 0.57 and 0.38 expected goals.
Their season average of 1.08 expected goals per game is the lowest of these two teams by some distance, and they rely heavily on Chris Lokesa, who has five league goals but started last week’s 2-1 home defeat by Union on the bench. Jearl Margaritha has been their most regular shooter on target, with 1.3 efforts on target per game, but he misses this trip with a minor injury.
What works for or against Beveren
- Two home wins without conceding, against OH Leuven and Sint-Truiden.
- Scored four in the draw at Westerlo.
- One point from five away league games.
- Only 0.38 expected goals in the 1-0 defeat at Kortrijk.
Standard vs Beveren Odds
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Standard Liège Form, Stats & Data
Standard score 1.50 goals per game from 1.90 expected, so the results have been worse than the chances they create. The defence is the weaker part of the side, although in their last four home league games only Kortrijk created more than 1.3 expected goals.
Beveren Form, Stats & Data
Beveren’s 1.30 goals per game flatters an attack that creates only 1.08 expected goals, and almost all of the surplus came in two games: the 4-4 at Westerlo and the 3-0 against OH Leuven. Away from home the chances have dried up.
Standard vs Beveren: Prediction & Betting Tip
The risk is obvious. Standard’s back four is short of two regulars, the crowd is restless, and Kortrijk showed on Saturday that Sclessin can be got at. Beveren also proved at Westerlo that they can score in bunches when a game opens up, and one goal is all it takes to lose this bet.
Even so, Beveren’s away attack is the clearest weakness on show: three blanks in five trips, with less than one expected goal in each of those three games. Standard should have most of the ball and the better chances. I am backing Beveren under 0.5 team goals at 2.93 with MyStake. Given the uncertainty in Standard’s defence, the stake is a modest 2/10, and my prediction is a 2-0 home win.