No Guirassy, third game in a week: Dortmund’s margins are tighter than the odds suggest
Dortmund are level on points with Bayern at the top, unbeaten in the league and conceding fewer goals than anyone. Yet they rarely run away with games. Only two of their eight Bundesliga games were won by more than a single goal, and they now face newly promoted Elversberg without Serhou Guirassy, who left the pitch early against Real Betis on Wednesday with a muscle problem.
„He felt his thigh. I don’t think anything is torn.“ – Niko Kovač on Serhou Guirassy after the Betis game (via sport1, translated from German)
Predicted lineups: Dortmund vs Elversberg
Fábio Silva is expected to lead the line in Guirassy’s absence, having scored at the Allianz Arena and set up Konstantinos Karetsas‘ winner against Betis. Marcel Sabitzer missed Wednesday through illness, and Emre Can is still working his way back from a cruciate injury. Elversberg are without Seifert, Zimmerschied and Gyamerah, while Noah Darvich is a doubt after a hamstring problem against Augsburg. Vincent Wagner is expected to keep the back four and midfield that beat Mainz 4-1.
Dortmund Team News & Preview
Kovač’s side have been excellent at not losing rather than at winning big. They beat HSV 2-0 and Paderborn 3-0, but the other victories – at Hoffenheim, at Stuttgart and at home to Frankfurt – were all by a single goal, and three games ended level. Six goals conceded is the league’s best record, but 1.54 expected goals per game in attack is modest for a side in second place.
The workload is starting to show. After the 2-2 at Bayern, Dortmund laboured for long spells against Betis before Karetsas won it in the 72nd minute, and Saturday is their third match in seven days. Guirassy has scored three league goals and set up two more, and his replacement, Fábio Silva, is a different type of forward who has mainly been used for shorter spells.
What works for or against Dortmund
- Best defence in the league with six goals conceded in eight games.
- Unbeaten in the Bundesliga this season.
- Guirassy is set to miss out with a muscle injury and Sabitzer has been ill.
- Only two wins by more than one goal in eight league games.
Elversberg Team News & Preview
Wagner put it bluntly in the build-up, saying Elversberg have „no chance“ and will try to take it anyway. The newly promoted side have made a habit of scoring against good teams: they beat Leverkusen 3-2, won 4-3 at Gladbach, lost only 2-1 to Bayern and put four past Mainz last weekend, with Felix Keidel opening the scoring from a direct free kick.
The downside is just as clear. Away from home they have scored only four goals in four games, no team in the league has faced more shots, and the 4-0 defeat at Leipzig showed what happens when a strong side gets on top of them. Eight of their 16 league goals have come in the first half hour, so a fast start is part of how they keep games alive. Around 8,000 travelling fans, a club record, will be behind them.
What works for or against Elversberg
- Only one defeat by more than a goal all season, and five set-piece goals.
- No team in the league has faced more shots.
- Their heaviest defeat came away from home, 4-0 at Leipzig.
- Darvich is a doubt and three other players are out.
Dortmund vs Elversberg Odds
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Dortmund Form, Stats & Data
The gap between 1.48 expected goals against and 0.75 actual goals conceded per game says a lot about Dortmund. Kobel and a back three led by Schlotterbeck, their highest-rated player, have kept the scoreboard low, but opponents are getting chances. In attack, 1.54 xG per match is not the profile of a side that routinely wins by three, and losing their main striker lowers that ceiling further.
Elversberg Form, Stats & Data
Elversberg concede 2.15 expected goals per game, so I am not pretending they are solid. What keeps them in matches is efficiency at the other end: 16 goals from 11.3 expected, plenty of them early and from set pieces, even if most of them have come at home. Krattenmacher has four goals in under 400 minutes, and Keidel’s deliveries make every free kick in range a chance. A single Elversberg goal means Dortmund need three of their own to beat this handicap.
Dortmund vs Elversberg: Prediction & Betting Tip
I expect Dortmund to win, but a Dortmund win at 1.29 is not the bet for me. The question is whether they win comfortably, and on this season’s evidence they mostly do not: six of their eight league games were decided by one goal or ended level. Add the absence of Guirassy, Sabitzer’s illness and a third game in seven days, and I think Elversberg can stay within one, as they have done in seven of their eight league games.
The danger is obvious: Elversberg give up a lot of shots, and Leipzig beat them 4-0 a fortnight ago. If Dortmund score early, this could get away from the visitors. That is why the stake stays at 5/10 rather than higher, but I am happy with Elversberg +1.5 at 2.08 with Winz. I see Dortmund edging it 2-1.