A cup final heartbreak, no Owusu – and Nashville arrive one point from the Supporters‘ Shield
Nashville can wrap up their first Supporters‘ Shield in Montréal on Saturday afternoon: a win or a draw at Stade Saputo is enough, with three regular-season games still to play. BJ Callaghan’s side sit on 67 points, 12 clear at the top of the overall table. Montréal are bottom of the Eastern Conference with 25 points, and their week has gone from bad to worse. On Wednesday they drew 1-1 with Forge FC over 120 minutes in the Canadian Championship final and then lost the shootout 4-2, making Forge the first Canadian Premier League club to lift the Voyageurs Cup.
Prince Owusu has scored 15 of Montréal’s 36 league goals this season – and he is ruled out against Nashville with a lower-body injury.
Predicted lineups: CF Montréal vs Nashville SC
Montréal’s injury report is long. Owusu, who missed two league games with a lower-body problem before starting the cup final, is out again. Goalkeeper Thomas Gillier (19 league starts) and defender Jalen Neal (18 starts) are also unavailable, along with Bode Hidalgo and Brayan Ceballos. Philippe Eullaffroy left Alexis Sánchez on the bench for the whole of the final, but he started the 1-1 draw in Seattle last weekend and is expected to lead the line again. Nashville have nobody on the injury report. Montréal’s line-up is based on the side that drew in Seattle, with Luca Petrasso, who has started 26 league games, in for Neal; Nashville’s is their last league XI.
CF Montréal Team News & Preview
Without Owusu, Montréal lose far more than one player. Daniel Ríos is the next-best scorer with six league goals, and Wiki Carmona has four. Sánchez, signed as a Designated Player in August, has one assist in 11 appearances. Montréal have conceded 60 league goals, two per game, and have kept only four clean sheets.
Their home record is poor too: four wins, five draws and six defeats in 15 games at Stade Saputo, including a 3-0 loss to Atlanta ten days ago. On top of that, the cup final took 120 minutes out of the squad only three days before this kick-off, and Brayan Vera was sent off in the 54th minute, which left the rest of the team playing more than an hour with ten men.
What works for or against CF Montréal
- Drew 1-1 at Seattle last weekend.
- Owusu, their 15-goal top scorer, is injured.
- 120 minutes and a shootout defeat in Wednesday's cup final.
- 60 goals conceded and only four clean sheets.
Nashville SC Team News & Preview
Nashville have the best defence in the league: 23 goals conceded in 30 games and 14 clean sheets, with Brian Schwake behind Andy Nájar, Jeisson Palacios and Maxwell Woledzi. Going forward, Sam Surridge (17 goals) and Hany Mukhtar (16) are the main threats, and Mukhtar has scored in each of his last five games. Cristian Espinoza has set up 12 goals.
Their away form is the one thing to watch. Nashville have won six, drawn six and lost three on the road, and they drew 1-1 in San Jose last weekend. A draw would be enough for the Shield, and a home game against Philadelphia follows on Wednesday, so there is a question over how hard they will push. They have not lost to Montréal in five meetings, though, and won the reverse fixture 1-0.
What works for or against Nashville SC
- 14 clean sheets and only 23 goals conceded.
- Mukhtar has scored in five straight games.
- No injuries in the squad.
- Six draws in 15 away games, and a draw clinches the Shield.
CF Montréal vs Nashville SC Odds
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CF Montréal vs. Nashville SC Stats Comparison
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CF Montréal vs. Nashville SC Form Guide
CF Montréal Form, Stats & Data
Montréal allow 1.67 expected goals per game, and they concede even more than that. With their top scorer out, I struggle to see where their goals will come from against the meanest defence in MLS.
Nashville SC Form, Stats & Data
Nashville score more than their expected goals suggest, which says a lot about the finishing of Surridge and Mukhtar. Conceding fewer than 0.8 goals per game over 30 matches is no fluke.
CF Montréal vs Nashville SC: Prediction & Betting Tip
The gap between these two sides is huge, and the week has widened it. Montréal are bottom of the East, they have lost Owusu, and they come into this game three days after 120 draining minutes and a painful shootout defeat. Nashville have a full, healthy squad, the best defence in the league and two forwards on 33 goals between them.
The counter-argument is Nashville’s away record. Six draws on the road is a lot, and a point is enough to win the Shield, so they may settle if the game is level late on. That is why the stake is moderate. But Montréal have rarely managed to keep anyone out at home, and without Owusu I think Nashville will have enough to win. I am backing Nashville to win at 1.50 with Winz and see a 2-0 away win.