Into the Libertadores final – now Abel’s Palmeiras can go top for the night
Palmeiras booked their place in the Copa Libertadores final on Thursday despite a 1-0 home defeat to Fluminense: the tie finished 2-2 on aggregate and Abel Ferreira’s side went through on penalties. The final against Estudiantes is not until 28 November, so the focus switches straight back to the league. Palmeiras are second with 66 points, one behind Flamengo, and a win over Bragantino would put them top until Flamengo play Atlético-MG on Monday. Bragantino are tenth on 41 points and still hoping for a pre-Libertadores place.
Palmeiras have kept 14 clean sheets in 31 league games and have not lost to Bragantino in their last seven meetings.
Predicted lineups: Palmeiras vs Bragantino
Abel has two key players suspended. Andreas Pereira, who has started 31 league games and leads the side with ten assists, and Joaquín Piquerez, Palmeiras‘ highest-rated player, both picked up bans against Athletico. Arthur is expected to replace Piquerez at left wing-back, and ge reports that Ramón Sosa is favourite to come in for Pereira, with Mauricio the alternative. Vitor Roque (ankle) and Paulinho (calf) are injured, and Jefté is provisionally suspended. Bragantino have problems of their own: Gustavo Marques, who has started 29 league games at centre-back, is out with pubic pain, Eric Ramires is suspended, and Andrés Hurtado and Gustavo Neves are injured. Both line-ups follow ge’s predicted XIs.
Palmeiras Team News & Preview
Palmeiras win games through their defence. They have conceded 22 goals in 31 league games, and Carlos Miguel has 13 clean sheets of his own. At home they have won 11, drawn three and lost only one of 15, and they arrive on the back of a 2-0 win at Athletico and a 4-1 win over Corinthians in their last two league games. José López leads the scoring with nine league goals.
The question is energy and creativity. Thursday’s semi-final was emotionally draining, and losing Andreas Pereira takes away their main supplier. Abel may go with three central midfielders and Sosa running in behind, which could make Palmeiras more direct but less fluent. They are also not a side that wins by big margins: they average 1.74 goals per game.
What works for or against Palmeiras
- 11 wins and only one defeat in 15 home league games.
- Only 22 goals conceded in 31 league games.
- Andreas Pereira and Piquerez are suspended.
- A draining Libertadores semi-final on Thursday.
Bragantino Team News & Preview
Vagner Mancini’s side create a decent number of chances, with 1.58 expected goals per game, more than Palmeiras. Lucas Barbosa is their top scorer with seven league goals. Away from home, though, they have been poor: four wins, five draws and seven defeats in 16 league games, and they have lost at Flamengo and Atlético-MG in recent weeks.
The absences in defence are the main problem. Gustavo Marques has been an almost ever-present at centre-back, and Alix Vinícius steps in alongside Guzmán Rodríguez. Losing Ramires in midfield also leaves Mancini choosing between Gabriel, Sosa and Patrick.
What works for or against Bragantino
- 1.58 expected goals per game.
- Beat Cruzeiro 4-2 two games ago.
- Seven defeats in 16 away league games.
- Gustavo Marques and Ramires are missing.
Palmeiras vs Bragantino Odds
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Palmeiras Form, Stats & Data
Palmeiras allow less than one expected goal per game, the base of their title challenge. They also score more than their chances suggest, which shows how clinical they have been.
Bragantino Form, Stats & Data
Bragantino’s chance creation is better than their goals tally, which makes them dangerous if Palmeiras switch off. Finishing has been the issue all season.
Palmeiras vs Bragantino: Prediction & Betting Tip
Palmeiras have a clear target – going top – and the home record to match: one defeat in 15 at home and the best defence in the league. Bragantino are weakened at the back without Gustavo Marques and have lost seven times on the road.
What stops me going bigger is the week Palmeiras have had. They played an intense semi-final on Thursday, and without Andreas Pereira and Piquerez the team loses its main creator and its best-rated player. Bragantino also create enough chances to punish any slip. Even so, I expect Palmeiras‘ defensive solidity to make the difference. I am backing Palmeiras to win at 1.54 with Winz and see a 2-0 home win.