Two sides who score and concede – and Brann’s midfield has gone missing
Pre-match update (20:15 CET): One big change since this preview went up: Sint-Truiden sacked Frédéric De Meyer on Monday after five straight league defeats, and his assistant Sepp De Roover takes charge as interim manager tonight. De Roover has talked about adding realism and stability after his side conceded too easily, which gives more weight to their 2-0 and 1-0 European wins without conceding. I still expect goals with Brann missing Gudmundsson and Lungi Sørensen, so the bet stays Over 2.5 Goals at 1.54, but I am cutting the stake from 3/10 to 2/10. Official teams were not out when I checked, and the odds quoted are from the original publication on 4 November; prices may have moved since.
Brann left two more midfielders at home on Wednesday. Eggert Aron Gudmundsson was injured against Molde and Jacob Lungi Sørensen, their highest-rated player this season, has an ankle problem. Both join Sondre Tronstad, Sakarias Opsahl, Nana Kwame Boakye and Kjartan Kjartansson on the sidelines. That matters in a fixture between two sides whose league games are rarely quiet: Sint-Truiden average almost four goals per Pro League match and Brann 3.5 per Eliteserien match.
Predicted lineups: Sint-Truiden vs Brann
Sint-Truiden have no reported absentees, but this is interim manager Sepp De Roover’s first game in charge, so changes to the side that started against Leuven are possible. Official teams were not out at the time of this update. Brann’s travelling squad of 21 includes Noah Holm, their top scorer with eight league goals, and creator Kristian Eriksen, but with Gudmundsson and Lungi Sørensen missing, I expect Thore Pedersen to come into midfield.
Sint-Truiden Team News & Preview
Sint-Truiden are 15th in the Pro League with eight points from ten games, but the numbers say they deserve more. Only one side has created more expected goals than their 21.6, and they score 1.8 goals per game. The problem is at the back: 21 goals conceded and only one clean sheet. In their last three league games they lost 4-3 at Mechelen, 3-2 at Club Brugge and 2-1 at home to Leuven.
Europe has been kinder. They beat Iberia 1999 2-0 and won 1-0 at Midtjylland, and they have yet to concede in the competition.
The Leuven defeat cost Frédéric De Meyer his job on Monday. His assistant Sepp De Roover steps up for this game and says the side will keep the dominant style that creates plenty of chances, but will add more realism because the results have not been good enough (via Sporza, translated from Dutch). That points to a more cautious Sint-Truiden than the one that has shipped 21 league goals.
What works for or against Sint-Truiden
- Second-most expected goals in the Pro League.
- Two wins from two in the Conference League.
- 21 league goals conceded in ten games.
- First game under interim manager Sepp De Roover.
Brann Team News & Preview
Brann are seventh in Norway with 45 goals scored and 42 conceded in 25 games, and their expected goals against, 49.1, is one of the worst in the league. They beat Molde 3-2 on Sunday, and in Europe they won 2-1 against Lincoln Red Imps before a 4-1 win in Lithuania.
The missing midfielders are the concern. Lungi Sørensen leads the squad for defensive actions, and without him and Tronstad, there is less protection in front of a defence that already concedes 1.7 goals per game.
What works for or against Brann
- Six goals in two Conference League games.
- Beat Molde 3-2 on Sunday.
- 42 league goals conceded in 25 games.
- Lungi Sørensen and Gudmundsson not travelling.
Sint-Truiden vs Brann Odds
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St. Truiden vs. Brann Form Guide
St. Truiden Form, Stats & Data
Sint-Truiden create 2.16 expected goals a game and allow 1.87. Few teams in Belgium play more open football.
Brann Form, Stats & Data
Brann allow almost two expected goals per league game, and their best-rated player, the man who usually protects the defence, is out.
Sint-Truiden vs Brann: Prediction & Betting Tip
Sint-Truiden create plenty and concede plenty. Brann do the same and are now without two of the players who usually protect their back four. Both teams‘ league games average well over three goals, and Brann have scored six in two European matches. I expect an open game.
Sint-Truiden’s two European games ended 2-0 and 1-0, and if they defend the way they did in Herning, this could stay tight. An interim manager talking about realism adds to that risk. But Brann have scored six times in two European games, and their midfield is weaker than usual. I am backing Over 2.5 Goals at 1.54 with MyStake, now for 2/10 rather than 3/10 because of the change in the Sint-Truiden dugout, with 2-1 to the hosts my score.