Eight straight wins meets ten games without one: WAC arrive without Fitz
Pre-match update (18:35 CET): No fresh absentees have been reported for either side since this preview went live, and Dominik Fitz serves his suspension for WAC as expected. The official team sheets were not out at the time of this check, but the line-ups previewed by ORF this afternoon have Rapid unchanged from my predicted XI, Horn included, so I am sticking with Wolfsberger AC under 0.5 team goals at 2.29 with a 6/10 stake. The odds quoted are from Thursday; prices may have moved since.
The gap between these two sides has rarely looked wider. Rapid have won eight competitive games in a row and sit top with 30 points from 11 matches, while Wolfsberger AC are bottom, ten league games without a win and without suspended playmaker Dominik Fitz. Manfred Schmid is only in his fourth game since replacing Thomas Silberberger, and the one point he has collected so far came courtesy of a goal that Fitz set up.
Rapid have won all six home league games this season with a goal difference of 23-3.
Predicted lineups: Rapid vs WAC
Official line-ups were not yet confirmed at 18:35 CET, so the XIs below remain predictions. Thorup has no reason to tinker. The XI that won the derby 2-0 at Austria Wien is expected again, although Jannes Horn played through that game on painkillers and was taken off around the hour, so left-back is the only real question. Jakob Schöller is the new absentee and is expected to miss one to two weeks. WAC must replace Fitz in their midfield five; Emmanuel Agyemang is my projection for that role rather than a confirmed choice, and the rest of the side should mirror the one that drew 1-1 with Sturm.
Rapid Team News & Preview
The derby win did not flatter Rapid’s own players. Austria had more of the ball for long spells and hit the crossbar before Yusuf Demir’s penalty on the hour settled things, and Horn admitted afterwards that it was one of their weaker performances. Even so, Rapid created 2.20 expected goals in that game, and the way they keep winning when they are not at their best is what separates them from the rest of the league.
At the Allianz Stadion the pattern has been clearer still. Altach, GAK, Sturm, WSG Tirol, Hartberg and Lustenau all left Hütteldorf beaten, and only three of them managed a goal. Behind Demir, Kara and Dahl, who have five league goals each, the platform is a defence that has allowed the second-fewest shots in the division according to Opta figures published by the club.
What works for or against Rapid
- Six home league wins from six, with clean sheets against Altach, GAK and WSG Tirol.
- Five days of rest since the derby and no European football to manage.
- Rapid have scored 33 league goals from 25.9 expected goals, so their finishing has run hot.
- Horn finished the derby on painkillers and left-back could change.
WAC Team News & Preview
Fitz’s ban hurts WAC in the one area where they had found a little life. He started against Sturm and delivered the corner that led to Donis Avdijaj’s goal, and Avdijaj has been directly involved in five of the club’s eight league goals. Take Fitz out and the supply line to a striking pair of Phillip Verhounig and Sankara Karamoko gets even thinner.
The draw with Sturm was earned the hard way, with 35 per cent of the ball and a stoppage-time penalty conceded, and it followed six straight defeats in all competitions, including a cup exit at second-tier Hertha Wels. Away from home WAC have managed two goals in five league trips, drawing a blank at Grazer AK, Altach and Hartberg.
What works for or against WAC
- Only two goals in five away league games and blanks in three of them.
- Fitz is suspended and Wimmer is out with a cruciate ligament tear.
- Schmid's side defended deep and well enough to take a point off Sturm last time out.
- Schmid has had five days to work with the squad since that draw.
Rapid vs WAC Odds
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SK Rapid vs. WAC Stats Comparison
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SK Rapid vs. WAC Form Guide
SK Rapid Form, Stats & Data
At home the defensive number drops even lower: Rapid’s six visitors have averaged 0.81 expected goals, and none of them topped 1.30. That matters more for this bet than the eye-catching 3.00 goals per game, which owes something to unusually sharp finishing. I am not relying on Rapid scoring four; I am relying on a back line that has rarely given anyone a sniff at the Allianz Stadion.
WAC Form, Stats & Data
Three shots on target per game is a poor return for a side that needs goals, and away from home it gets worse: WAC’s expected goals on their travels average 0.87, inflated by one open game at Ried. Their only league win came on the opening day. Without Fitz, there is no obvious source of the kind of set-piece delivery that has produced their best moments.
Head-to-Head
Rapid have won the last three meetings, including a 3-0 in Wolfsberg in September in which both first-half goals came from set-piece headers. WAC have since changed manager, so I treat this as background rather than a reason for the bet.
Home Team vs Away Team H2H Check
Rapid vs WAC: Prediction & Betting Tip
A Rapid win at 1.25 tells you little you did not already know, so I would rather attack WAC’s side of the scoreline. Rapid concede almost nothing at home, WAC have the weakest attack in the league, and the one player who has been creating chances for Avdijaj is suspended. Rapid kept clean sheets in half of their home games, and none of their visitors has looked like more than a one-goal threat.
What could go wrong? Rapid have been finishing better than their chances suggest, and a big lead could see Thorup rotate and the concentration drop, and Sturm, Hartberg and Lustenau all managed a goal in Hütteldorf. I still think WAC are more likely to draw a blank than not, and with the facts lining up this clearly, 6/10 is a stake I am comfortable with. Wolfsberger AC under 0.5 team goals at 2.29 with MyStake is the bet, and 3-0 is my score.