Sevilla sixth, Alavés winless – but the chances tell a different story
Pre-match update (20:05 CET): The team sheets are in and Isaac Romero has shaken off his knee problem to start up front alongside Lucas Stassin, with Rubén Vargas back on the right and Sangante at centre-back. That takes away part of my case against Sevilla, so I am dropping the stake on Double Chance X2 from 4/10 to 3/10 and trimming Alavés Draw No Bet from 2/10 to 1/10. The rest of the argument stands: Bueno and Peque are still missing, and Lucas Boyé leads the Alavés line with Toni Martínez in a back-five shape. I could not re-check MyStake’s prices for this update, so the odds quoted are from the original publication on 5 November; they may have moved since.
On results alone this looks like a straightforward home win: Sevilla are sixth, Alavés have gone seven league games without a win and have not won away all season. Underneath that, the picture is far closer. Luis García Plaza has lost Manu Bueno to a red card and Peque to a hamstring injury picked up in Tuesday’s training, and his top scorer Isaac Romero has been nursing a knee knock, although he is fit enough to start. Both managers also face former clubs on Friday night.
Alavés created more expected goals than their opponents in two of their last five league games and took one point from them.
Predicted lineups: Sevilla vs Alavés
The line-ups are now confirmed. Romero, who trained apart from the group early in the week, starts up front with Lucas Stassin, while Rubén Vargas comes in on the right and Sangante partners Kike Salas at centre-back; Ejuke and Alfon González drop to the bench. Quique Sánchez Flores has gone to a back five, with Valentini joining Tenaglia and Koski, Ángel Pérez and Youssef Enríquez as wing-backs, and Toni Martínez paired with Lucas Boyé up front. Denis Suárez and Abde Rebbach start on the bench. Alavés are missing only the long-term absentees Facundo Garcés and Mikel Rodríguez.
Sevilla Team News & Preview
The second half at Getafe is the one Sevilla would like to forget. Kike Salas headed them in front from a Félix Correia corner and they were the better side before the break, but after it they conceded three times, the last after Bueno had been sent off for a last-man foul on Satriano. That red card costs García Plaza his most dynamic central midfielder, and Peque’s hamstring injury, which will keep him out for three to four weeks, removes another option from the attacking group.
The table is kinder to Sevilla than the underlying numbers. They have scored 17 league goals from about 12 expected goals, and in six of their 11 league games the opposition created the better chances. At home they have beaten Rayo, Valencia and Osasuna but lost to Atlético and Barcelona, a 7-7 goal tally that hardly screams fortress.
What works for or against Sevilla
- Three home wins from five, including a 2-0 over Osasuna in their last game at the Pizjuán.
- Bueno is suspended and Peque is out for weeks, although top scorer Isaac Romero is fit to start.
- Sevilla average 1.08 expected goals per game but have scored 1.55, a gap that rarely lasts.
Alavés Team News & Preview
A 6-1 defeat at Barcelona looks dreadful, and the 4-0 half-time score made it worse, but it tells you little about how Alavés usually play. Before that they drew 1-1 with Málaga while creating 1.51 expected goals to 0.47, lost 2-1 at Celta despite edging the chances, and went down 1-0 to Valencia in a game they also shaded on expected goals. Seven games without a win is real; the gap between performance and points is real too.
The fitness report is clean. Only Garcés and Mikel Rodríguez, both recovering from cruciate ligament injuries, are missing, and the Copa del Rey tie against Txerloia was postponed twice, so Sánchez Flores has had a full week with his squad. Lucas Boyé has five league goals and is the obvious reference point, with Ángel Pérez providing the delivery from wide.
What works for or against Alavés
- Seven league games without a win and no away victory in five attempts this season.
- A fully fit squad apart from two long-term cruciate ligament cases.
- Their expected-goal difference is better than Sevilla's despite the poor run.
- Sánchez Flores returns to Sevilla, one of his former clubs.
Sevilla vs Alavés Odds
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FC Sevilla vs. Alavés Stats Comparison
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FC Sevilla Form, Stats & Data
The key figure is the gap between 1.08 expected goals and 1.55 actual goals. Sevilla are not a dominant side: they average 43 per cent possession and lose the chance count more often than they win it. Strip out the finishing streak and the depleted squad that takes the field on Friday looks closer to a mid-table team than one pushing for Europe.
Alavés Form, Stats & Data
Alavés create slightly more than Sevilla per game and concede about the same, which is why I take their winless run with a pinch of salt. Their away form is the honest weakness: four goals and no wins from five trips. But two of the three defeats were by a single goal, and the only heavy one came at Barcelona.
Sevilla vs Alavés: Prediction & Betting Tip
Sevilla at 1.95 asks a lot of a side that has been living off its finishing and is now missing Bueno and Peque. Alavés have played better than their results, they arrive with a fit squad, and the expected-goal numbers over 11 games put these two teams much closer than the table does. That is the case for covering the draw and the away win.
Alavés have not won away all season, and confidence after a 6-1 hiding cannot be measured in a spreadsheet. If Sevilla score early, the visitors have shown little ability to come back. With Romero back in the starting line-up as well, that is why I have cut this to 3/10, but I am happy with Double Chance X2 at 1.86 with MyStake, and a 1-1 would not surprise me at all.