Out-of-form AZ meet a stretched but solid Juventus
Pre-match update (20:05 CET): The team sheets are in. Spalletti has rotated as expected, with Bremer, Douglas Luiz and Boga all on the bench, but his XI is more attacking than I predicted: Alajbegović plays behind Woltemade and Kolo Muani, and Gatti, Lucumí and Kelly form the back three. AZ bring in Kasius, Goes and Stengs. Losing Bremer from the back line and adding a second striker strengthens the case against this bet, but Juventus are still a tired, patched-up side and AZ’s problems against a deep block have not gone away. I am sticking with Under 2.5 Goals at 2.02 with MyStake, and the stake stays at the minimum of 1/10. The odds quoted are from 4 November; I could not re-check the MyStake price before kick-off, so they may have moved.
AZ have not won a league game since 20 September and have lost their last two, 1-0 at Ajax and 2-0 against Twente. Their problem is breaking down teams that sit deep, and Juventus concede very little. Luciano Spalletti’s side beat Napoli 2-0 on Sunday, but this is their third game in eight days, Weston McKennie has joined a long injury list and the manager says he has to make changes all over the pitch. There is also a family subplot: Teun Koopmeiners faces his brother Peer.
“Now I have to make choices about half of the team.” – Luciano Spalletti (via juventus.com, translated from Italian)
Predicted lineups: AZ vs Juventus
The line-ups are now confirmed. AZ go 4-3-3, with Kasius at right-back, Goes alongside Schouten in the middle and Stengs on the right of the front three; Dijkstra and Hoedt drop to the bench, and Smit is back among the substitutes. Juventus start with a back three of Gatti, Lucumí and Kelly, Kalulu and Cambiaso wide, and Alajbegović supporting Woltemade and Kolo Muani. Bremer, Douglas Luiz and Boga are on the bench. Yıldız, Locatelli, Thuram, Conceição, González, Çelik and McKennie are all out, while AZ are without Zoet and Resink.
AZ Alkmaar Team News & Preview
AZ are fifth in the Eredivisie with a 20:13 goal difference after 11 games. Their underlying numbers are good, with 24.7 expected goals for and 13.3 against, but recent results are poor. Manager Martin Echteld says his team struggle when opponents defend deep, and that has been a recurring problem.
In Europe they lost 1-0 at Sunderland, beat Hapoel Be’er Sheva 2-1 and won 4-0 at Ararat. Daal is their top league scorer with five goals.
“Every team finds it hard when the opponent sits very deep … we have been running into this for a number of games.” – AZ manager Echteld (via Voetbalprimeur, translated from Dutch)
What works for or against AZ
- 24.7 expected goals in 11 league games.
- Winless in the league since 20 September.
- Lost 1-0 at Ajax and 2-0 against Twente.
- Struggle against deep defences, as the manager admits.
Juventus Team News & Preview
Juventus have conceded only 5.9 expected goals in ten Serie A games, which is why their games tend to stay tight. Their own attack is modest: 13 goals and 13.6 expected goals in ten league games.
The Europa League has been livelier, with a 5-0 win over NEC, a 2-1 win at Celta and a 2-2 draw with Rennes. Douglas Luiz is their best-rated player but starts on the bench tonight, and Teun Koopmeiners returns to the Netherlands.
What works for or against Juventus
- Only 5.9 expected goals conceded in ten Serie A games.
- Beat Napoli 2-0 on Sunday.
- Third game in eight days, with Bremer and Douglas Luiz on the bench.
- Long injury list, now including McKennie.
AZ vs Juventus Odds
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AZ Alkmaar Alkmaar vs. Juventus Stats Comparison
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AZ Alkmaar Alkmaar vs. Juventus Form Guide
AZ Alkmaar Alkmaar Form, Stats & Data
AZ create plenty on average, but the recent run shows how much they struggle against well-organised defences.
Juventus Form, Stats & Data
Juventus are built on defence: 0.59 expected goals conceded per league game is an outstanding figure.
AZ vs Juventus: Prediction & Betting Tip
Juventus are a side who keep games tight in Serie A, and AZ have been struggling to break down deep defences. Spalletti has rotated for his third game in eight days, and even with Woltemade and Kolo Muani both starting, I expect a tired Juventus side to be compact rather than adventurous. AZ’s recent form gives me little reason to think they will open them up.
The strongest argument against the bet is AZ’s season-long attacking numbers. They average 2.25 expected goals per league game, and Juventus‘ three Europa League games have produced 12 goals. With Bremer on the bench and two strikers starting, that risk is a little bigger than when I first wrote this. Unders against teams who create this much have hurt me before, so I keep the stake small. I am backing Under 2.5 Goals at 2.02 with MyStake for 1/10.