Seven from seven for Reis – and Freiburg arrive without a clean sheet in nine
Pre-match update (17:50 CET): The team sheets are in, and Salah, Muçi and Onuachu all start for Trabzonspor. Reis has made two changes to the XI I expected, with Cenk Özkaçar at centre-back and Mendy alongside Fabinho. Schuster has rebuilt his attacking midfield line, bringing in Irie, Goto and Grifo, while Beste, Suzuki and Scherhant are not in the starting XI. Freiburg’s back four is exactly as I predicted, so nothing here changes my view. My bet stays Trabzonspor over 1.5 team goals at 1.91 with MyStake for 3/10. The odds quoted are from when this preview was published on 4 November; prices may have moved since.
Thomas Reis has not dropped a point since taking over at Trabzonspor. Seven games, seven wins, and every one of them with at least two goals for his side: 3-0 at Samsunspor, 4-2 at KuPS, 2-0 against Beşiktaş and Hearts, 4-3 at Rizespor and 2-0 against Gaziantep on Sunday. Freiburg come to the Black Sea after a 3-0 defeat in Monaco on their last European trip, and Julian Schuster’s side have now gone nine matches without keeping a clean sheet.
Predicted lineups: Trabzonspor vs Freiburg
Both line-ups are now confirmed. With Sidny Lopes Cabral banned, Mustafa Eskihellaç starts at left-back, Cenk Özkaçar partners Nwaiwu in the middle and Mendy sits next to Fabinho. Paul Onuachu keeps his place after returning against Gaziantep, which gives Reis his usual reference point up front. Freiburg are without Philipp Treu (ankle) and Florent Muslija (cruciate ligament). Igor Matanović, who has scored in each of their last two games, leads the line, with Irie, Goto and Grifo behind him.
Trabzonspor Team News & Preview
The run is backed up by the numbers. Trabzonspor average 2.4 goals and 6.8 shots on target per Süper Lig game, the second-best figure in the league for both, and they have created more big chances than anyone else in Turkey. Mohamed Salah has eight league goals and is their highest-rated player, while Ernest Muçi has six league assists and was directly involved in five goals across his last two outings.
Papara Park has been a fortress, too. Trabzonspor have won their last six home games, and Hearts were held to nothing there a fortnight ago. The absences are mainly at the back and in midfield, with Malinovskyi and Okay Yokuşlu among those missing, so the attack Reis sends out should look much like the one that has been scoring freely.
What works for or against Trabzonspor
- Seven straight wins under Thomas Reis.
- At least two goals in each of those seven games.
- Six home wins in a row.
- Lopes Cabral suspended, with several midfielders injured.
SC Freiburg Team News & Preview
Freiburg’s season splits neatly in two. In the Bundesliga they are third and have conceded only 9.7 expected goals in eight games, one of the best defensive records in Germany. On the road in Europe it has been a different side: they lost 3-0 at Monaco last time out and have lost four of their last five away games in European competition.
Recent results back that up. Leverkusen and Bayern both scored at least twice against them, Wolfsburg put two past them in the cup and Jablonec did the same in Freiburg. Nine games without a clean sheet is a long run for a Schuster team.
What works for or against SC Freiburg
- Only 9.7 expected goals conceded in eight Bundesliga games.
- Matanović has scored in each of the last two games.
- No clean sheet in nine matches.
- Four defeats in their last five European away games.
Trabzonspor vs Freiburg Odds
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Trabzonspor Form, Stats & Data
Forty-five big chances in ten league games is the figure that matters here. Trabzonspor do not need many looks to score twice, and Salah and Muçi are both in form.
Freiburg Form, Stats & Data
Freiburg’s expected goals against in the league are good, but the actual goals tell a different story in recent weeks: they have conceded in nine straight games.
Trabzonspor vs Freiburg: Prediction & Betting Tip
I am not convinced either side will keep the other out, but the clearer angle is Trabzonspor’s own goal count. Reis’s side have scored twice or more in seven straight games, they are unbeaten at home and Freiburg have leaked goals on their travels in Europe. Salah, Muçi and Onuachu give the hosts three different ways to hurt a back four that has not kept a clean sheet in nine games.
Can Freiburg’s Bundesliga defence travel? It might. Their league xG against is excellent, Ginter is in good form and the hosts are missing their first-choice left-back. That is the risk, and it is why this is not a bigger stake. I am taking Trabzonspor over 1.5 team goals at 1.91 with MyStake for 3/10, and I can see it ending 2-1.