Sarri’s Atalanta are short of centre-backs and short of confidence
Pre-match update (17:55 CET): The teams are in and Sarri has rotated. Scamacca starts up front instead of Krstović, while De Ketelaere and Éderson drop to the bench, with Pašalić, Rowe and Samardžić coming in. Hien and Kossounou are not in the squad, so Scalvini and Obrić start together again. Marc Gual starts for Kairat, up front alongside Edmilson in what Italian reports list as a 5-3-2. That back five suggests Kairat will sit deeper than I expected, which is the main point against the bet, but this is a weaker Atalanta midfield without Éderson and the defence in front of Carnesecchi has not changed. The bet stays: Kairat over 0.5 team goals at 1.95, 3/10. I could not check the latest MyStake price for this update, so the odds quoted are from 4 November and may have moved.
Maurizio Sarri did not look for excuses after Monday’s 3-0 home defeat to Parma, and his summary of that night fits the wider picture. Atalanta have not won in five games, they are 13th in Serie A and they have conceded 20 league goals in ten matches. Now they go into a Conference League game with only two fit senior centre-backs.
“They did not find courage. We found fear.” – Maurizio Sarri after the defeat to Parma (via TuttoAtalanta, translated from Italian)
Predicted lineups: Atalanta vs Kairat
The teams are now confirmed. Isak Hien, Odilon Kossounou, Thomas Kristensen and Sead Kolašinac are all missing, so Giorgio Scalvini and Relja Obrić start together in the middle. Sarri has made changes further forward: Gianluca Scamacca leads the line ahead of Sulemana, Samardžić and Rowe, with Pašalić alongside Elmas, while Nikola Krstović, Charles De Ketelaere and Éderson start on the bench. Kairat line up in a 5-3-2 according to the Italian reports, with Marc Gual, their 12-goal top scorer, up front alongside Edmilson Filho.
Atalanta Team News & Preview
The defensive problems are not new, but they are getting worse. Atalanta have one clean sheet in ten Serie A games and have conceded 18.3 expected goals, one of the weakest records in the league. In the last five games they have let in 14: three at Milan, two at Ajax, four against Frosinone, two at Fiorentina and three against Parma. With Hien and Kossounou out, Sarri cannot rotate at the back even though Monza are up next on Sunday. Scalvini and Obrić have to play again.
What works for or against Atalanta
- Beat Pafos 3-1 at home in their first league-phase game.
- Winless in five games in all competitions.
- Only two fit senior centre-backs.
- Fourteen goals conceded in the last five games.
Kairat Almaty Team News & Preview
Kairat are second in Kazakhstan with 60 goals in 30 league games and the best defence in the division. Europe has been harder. They drew 1-1 at Riga and were beaten 5-1 at home by Panathinaikos, but they found the net in both games. Marc Gual is the man to watch. The Spanish forward scored 12 league goals this season and starts up front alongside Edmilson Filho, so he is the player most likely to punish the spaces Atalanta’s defence has been leaving.
What works for or against Kairat
- Scored in both Conference League games.
- Sixty goals in 30 domestic league games.
- Lost 5-1 at home to Panathinaikos.
- One point from two league-phase games.
Atalanta vs Kairat Odds
Atalanta vs. Kairat Stats Comparison
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Atalanta vs. Kairat Form Guide
Atalanta Form, Stats & Data
Two goals conceded per league game is the number that jumps out. Atalanta create enough to win most games at this level, but they are not shutting anyone out.
Kairat Form, Stats & Data
Kairat score regularly in Kazakhstan, and Gual’s movement is their best route to goal against a stretched defence.
Atalanta vs Kairat: Prediction & Betting Tip
I still expect Atalanta to win. The gap in quality is big and the hosts have more than enough going forward, even with De Ketelaere and Krstović on the bench. The bet is on Kairat getting at least one, because Atalanta are conceding two a game in Serie A, have not kept a clean sheet in five and line up with the only two fit centre-backs they have. Panathinaikos put five past Kairat in Almaty, and Kairat’s back five tells me they will defend deep and wait for their moments. But Kairat scored even in that heavy defeat, they have found the net in both European games, and Gual and Edmilson both start. I am backing Kairat over 0.5 team goals at 1.95 with MyStake for 3/10, with 3-1 my score.