Leeds lose their goals, Spurs still lack them: why Elland Road looks tight
Daniel Farke went into Thursday’s press conference with „mixed news“ and came out of it with three attacking doubts. Dominic Calvert-Lewin, who has scored almost half of Leeds‘ league goals, sat out training with a foot problem, while Okafor and Anton Stach were described as major doubts after only individual work this week. That matters in a fixture between two sides who have rarely been involved in open games this season.
„Just individual rehab work was possible, so major doubts for both if they are available.“ – Daniel Farke on Okafor and Stach
Predicted lineups: Leeds vs Tottenham
Leeds change very little from week to week, and the shape below is the one they have used all autumn, with Calvert-Lewin leading the line if he comes through Friday’s session. Joe Rodon is back in full training after his hamstring injury but is not expected to start. Tottenham have Rodrigo Bentancur back from suspension, though he may begin on the bench, while Lucas Bergvall and Tosin Adarabioyo were described by De Zerbi as possible options rather than starters. Xavi Simons and Wilson Odobert are long-term absentees.
Leeds Team News & Preview
Five league games without a win have taken some of the shine off a decent start, and the goals have dried up with it. Since beating Newcastle 4-1 in mid-September, Leeds have scored twice in five league matches: a 0-0 with Palace, a 2-1 defeat at Arsenal, a 1-1 with Manchester United, a stalemate at Sunderland and a 2-0 defeat at Bournemouth. Calvert-Lewin has carried the attack with four goals, so a setback to his foot is the worst possible news for Farke.
Elland Road remains hard to break down. Leeds are unbeaten in eight home league games and have conceded only three times in four home fixtures this season. James Trafford keeps his place in goal despite his error at Bournemouth, and he has been the side’s highest-rated player on FotMob.
What works for or against Leeds
- Unbeaten in eight home league games, with three goals conceded in four home matches this season.
- Calvert-Lewin, Okafor and Stach are all doubts for the attacking positions.
- Two league goals in their last five games.
Tottenham Team News & Preview
Two weeks ago Spurs were near the bottom; now they are chasing a fourth straight league win for the first time in a long while. Coventry were beaten 3-1, Chelsea 2-0 away and Crystal Palace 2-0 against ten men. Roberto De Zerbi has said three wins are not enough, though, and his frustration after the Palace game was telling: two goals from 34 shots, and a request for a nastier edge in the final third.
That lack of a reliable finisher runs through the whole season. Spurs average 63 per cent possession, more than almost anyone, but have scored ten league goals in nine games, and their leading scorer is a centre-back. Before this winning run they had failed to score in four of their first six league matches.
What works for or against Tottenham
- Three straight league wins, including a clean sheet at Chelsea.
- Only ten league goals from nine games, and Van Hecke is the top scorer with two.
- Bentancur is available again after a three-match ban.
Leeds vs Tottenham Odds
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Leeds Form, Stats & Data
Seventeen goals in nine league games – both ends added together – sums up Leeds. They allow 1.31 expected goals per match but have conceded fewer than one goal a game, with Trafford in good form, and at the other end only 3.7 shots on target per match leaves little margin if Calvert-Lewin is missing or short of fitness. Without him, I struggle to see where more than one Leeds goal comes from.
Tottenham Form, Stats & Data
Possession without penetration is the Tottenham story. They hold the ball more than almost anyone, yet 1.30 expected goals per game is a modest return, and the best player by FotMob rating is a centre-back. The defensive side is sounder: 1.12 xG against and two clean sheets in the last three games. That profile fits a patient away performance far better than a shoot-out.
Leeds vs Tottenham: Prediction & Betting Tip
Both teams have spent the autumn in low-scoring games, and nothing this week points the other way. Leeds could be without the man who scores their goals, plus two more attacking options, while Spurs have been winning without ever looking prolific. Seven of Leeds‘ nine league fixtures and six of Tottenham’s stayed under the line.
There is a risk in Tottenham’s recent sharpness: they scored seven in three games and, if De Zerbi gets the „nastier“ edge he wants, Leeds‘ back three can be stretched. A Calvert-Lewin return would also lift Leeds. Even so, I am backing Under 2.5 Goals at 1.79 with Winz for 4/10, and 1-1 is the score I would expect.